IMG_0023 - 0 the demographic reality of West Africa is a...

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Unformatted text preview: 0 the demographic reality of West Africa is a countryside draining into dense Slums by the coast, ultimately the region's rulers will come to reflect the values of these shanty—towns. ~ As many internal African borders begin to crumble, a more impenetrable boundary threatens to isolate the continent as a whole: the wall of disease. TO UNDERSTAND THE EVENTS OF THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS, then, one must understand environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clash, geographic destiny, and the transformation of war. Each concept except the first relies partly on the one or ones before it, meaning that the last two-mew approaches to mapmaking and to warfare--are the most important. 1. THE ENVIRONMENT AS A HOSTILE POWER the national—security issue of the early twenty-first century. The political and strategic impact of surging populations, spreading disease, deforestation and soil erosion, water depletion, air pollution, and, possibly, rising sea levels in critical, overcrowded regions like the Nile Delta and Bangladesh--developments that will prompt mass migrations and, in turn, incite group conflicts--will be the core foreign—policy challenge ' ' 2. SKINHEAD COSSACKS, JUJU WARRIORS Huntington, "The" Clash of Civilizations?" The world, has been moving from nation—state conflict to ideological conflict to, finally, cultural conflict. 1 ° ‘ national borders will mean less more power Will fall into the hands of less " educated, less sophisticated groups. The real borders are the most tangible and intractable ones: those of culture and tribe. - Huntington writes, "First, differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic," involving, among other things, history, language, and religion. - "Second . . . interactions between peoples of different civilizations are increasing; these increasing interactions intensify civilization consciousness." ° Huntington points to interlocking conflicts among Hindu, Muslim, Slavic Orthodox, Western, Japanese, Confucian, Latin American, and possibly African civilizations - rebuttal of Huntington, Fouad Ajami: ”The world of Islam divides and subdivides. The battle lines in the Caucasus . . . are not coextensive with civilizational fault lines. The lines follow the interests of states. ° a rundown, crowded planet of skinhead Cossacks and juju warriors, influenced by the worst refuse of Western pop culture and ancient tribal hatreds, and battling over scraps of overused earth in guerrilla conflicts that ripple across continents and intersect in no discernible pattern—-meaning there's no easy—to-define threat. 5 January 2009 - 2/40 PM 6': \I55 \325—CP-535-2009. wpd, page 59 ...
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