CEE593ExamNovember29

CEE593ExamNovember29 - CEE 593 Exam Name Page1/4 A Briefly...

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CEE 593 Exam November 29, 1999 Name:_________________ Page1/4 A. Briefly answer, in the space provided using size 12 font or larger, the following: Under what conditions is modeling useful to managers (decision makers)? Decision to be made Many alternatives Best alternative not obvious Problem at least partially quantifiable Define the ‘modeling process’ in your own words. Establish goals or objectives – evaluation criteria Identify system and its components and interrelationships, decision variables, constraints, boundary conditions, input data Define relationships between decision variables and objectives, constraints Identify solution procedure and modify model as required Solve model and perform sensitivity analyses What are the possible sources of uncertainty in any planning or management model and how can one deal with them? Model input data Model parameters Model itself Perform sensitivity analyses Include probabilities within model Distinguish between simulation What if – given system design, operating policy and data input optimization What should be – based on some criteria and model assumptions. decision analysis (decision trees and other methods) A network showing all alternatives and chance events that can be used to find best expected value resulting from each decision.
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Identify some pitfalls of modeling. Believing the model really is the real world and not questioning the results. Not addressing the real issues, or providing the information needed when it is needed and at the right level of detail. Inadequate calibration, verification. B. The revenue obtained from the production of ‘goodies’ depends on the unit price, amount produced, q, and on the number sold, i.e., the demand for these goodies.
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