03_Calculating_Risks - CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk...

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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 1 CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk  (Building models)
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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 2 CEE 597: Where We Are Introduction to course  (Who is worried?) MON Hoffbuhr, “The Probability of Risk”; Broad, “Analyzing  ..Dangers” MON MON MON Bernstein, “Against the Gods”; Shodell, “Risky Business” Measuring risk and life statistics  (People get hurt. People die.) WED *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, “Rating the Risks” WED Wilson, “Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life”  WED Data on breast cancer in packet, Zuckerman, Gorman Calculating risk  (Building models) FRI *Morgan, “Probing the Question of Technology- Induced Risk” FRI Risk” A risk analysis model  (We can model that.)  Read before class.   MON Evans, Frick, and Schwing, “Is it Safer to Fly or Drive?” MON Sivak et al., “Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving”
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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 3 TODAY: Describing Risk Understanding, presenting, modeling data: Smokers and Non-Smokers Pill and Smoking Definitions of Risk Calculation of Risk Goals for Risk Assessment and Risk Management
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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 4 State Mutual’s Experience for insured Smokers (S) and Non-Smokers (NS), 1973-1978 Original Data in publication Ratio Death  Rates CAUSE OF DEATH   % DEATHS S/ NS Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 All other 32.5 233 1.9 All Causes 100 718 2.2 Source: Urquhart J, Heilmann K. Risk Watch: the odds of Life. Facts on File publications, New York, 1984
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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 5 State Mutual’s Experience for insured adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N Adjusted so equal numbers S and N. Ratio Death  Rates Deaths Deaths CAUSE OF DEATH     % DEATHS S/NS S's NS's Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 40 3 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 158 58 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 16 2 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 75 62 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 25 10 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 32 4 All other 32.5 233 1.9 153 80
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 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 6 State Mutual’s Experience for   adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N,  showing difference in deaths of S and N. Adjusted so equal numbers S and N.
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This note was uploaded on 03/29/2009 for the course CEE 5950 taught by Professor Carr during the Fall '08 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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03_Calculating_Risks - CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk...

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