03_Calculating_Risks

03_Calculating_Risks - CEE 597 Lecture 3 Calculating...

Info icon This preview shows pages 1–7. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 1 CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk  (Building models)
Image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 2 CEE 597: Where We Are Introduction to course  (Who is worried?) MON Hoffbuhr, “The Probability of Risk”; Broad, “Analyzing  ..Dangers” MON MON Gibbons, “Review of Wilson & Crouch” MON Bernstein, “Against the Gods”; Shodell, “Risky Business” Measuring risk and life statistics  (People get hurt. People die.) WED *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, “Rating the Risks” WED Wilson, “Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life”  WED Data on breast cancer in packet, Zuckerman, Gorman Calculating risk  (Building models) FRI *Morgan, “Probing the Question of Technology- Induced Risk” FRI *Morgan, “Choosing & Managing Technology-Induced  Risk” A risk analysis model  (We can model that.)  Read before class.   MON Evans, Frick, and Schwing, “Is it Safer to Fly or Drive?” MON Sivak et al., “Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving”
Image of page 2
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 3 TODAY: Describing Risk Understanding, presenting, modeling data: Smokers and Non-Smokers Pill and Smoking Definitions of Risk Calculation of Risk Goals for Risk Assessment and Risk Management
Image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 4 State Mutual’s Experience for insured Smokers (S) and Non-Smokers (NS), 1973-1978 Original Data in publication Ratio Death  Rates CAUSE OF DEATH   % DEATHS S/ NS Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 All other 32.5 233 1.9 All Causes 100 718 2.2 Source: Urquhart J, Heilmann K. Risk Watch: the odds of Life. Facts on File publications, New York, 1984
Image of page 4
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 5 State Mutual’s Experience for insured adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N Adjusted so equal numbers S and N. Ratio Death  Rates Deaths Deaths CAUSE OF DEATH     % DEATHS S/NS S's NS's Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 40 3 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 158 58 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 16 2 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 75 62 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 25 10 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 32 4 All other 32.5 233 1.9 153 80
Image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
 25 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 6 State Mutual’s Experience for   adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N,  showing difference in deaths of S and N. Adjusted so equal numbers S and N. Ratio Death  Rates Deaths Deaths S - NS CAUSE OF DEATH        %   DEATHS S/NS S's NS's Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 40 3 38 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 158 58 99 Hypertension+related heart dis.
Image of page 6
Image of page 7
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern