04_Fly_or_Drive - CEE597 Lecture 4 A Risk Analysis Model:...

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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 1 CEE597 – Lecture 4 A Risk Analysis Model: Fly or Drive?
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 2 CEE 597: Where We Are Measuring risk and life statistics (People get hurt. People die.) WED *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, “Rating the Risks” WED Wilson, “Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life”  WED Data on breast cancer in packet, Zuckerman, Gorman Calculating risk (Building models) FRI *Morgan, “Probing the Question of Technology- Induced Risk” FRI *Morgan, “Choosing and Managing Technology- Induced Risk” A risk analysis model MON Evans, Frick, and Schwing, “Is it Safer to Fly or Drive?” MON Sivak et al., “Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving” Historical Accidents   (Read TMI article for Wed.–PACKET) Wed Understanding System Failures , V. Bignell and J. Fortune WedREAD: First page of B&F Chapter 9 WedREAD: “Accident at Three Mile Island nuclear power station” FRI.  READ: Genius – challenger shuttle “Bhopal – a tragedy in waiting” Hw: “Short studies,”B&F  Chapter 7
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 3 TODAY: Describing Risk Modeling Risks FLY or Drive (or who you should believe) Use of models Appropriate basis for risk calculation (exposure) Interaction of factors Parameter estimation Learning objectives 1. be able to describe factors affecting airline/auto safety 2. know why we need to model risks 3. be able to construct & use simple models of fatality rates.
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 4 I better call you back Cell phone use ….
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 5 Cell phone ‘Blind’ Drivers
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 6 Distracted Drivers http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/04/20/driving.study/index.html
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 7 Crash Study Ranks Deadly vehicles
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 8 Driver death rates in car crashes
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 9 CRITERIA Driver deaths in crashes  per million registered vehicle years % of single-vehicle driver deaths  were in rollovers Better criteria deaths per mile?
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 10 Death Rate Driver deaths in crashes per million registered vehicle years 2-door 2-drive is 10 inches shorter (in 180”) and 200 lbs lighter (in 3600 lbs) than 4-door model. death rate % in rollovers Popular Explorer 4-door,4-drive   56 70.3 Explorer 4-door, 2-drive 103 86.5 Average SUVs 72 79.6 Explorer 2-door, 2-drive 231 86.7
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 28 January 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 11 So are transportation deaths a concern in the United States?
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This note was uploaded on 03/29/2009 for the course CEE 5950 taught by Professor Carr during the Fall '08 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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04_Fly_or_Drive - CEE597 Lecture 4 A Risk Analysis Model:...

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