08_Reliability_Trees_Prob_Review

08_Reliability_Trees_Prob_Review - CEE 597 Lecture 08...

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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 1 CEE 597 – Lecture 08 Probability, Reliability Analysis,  Fault Trees & Event Trees
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 2 This Week Monday -  Bhopal, Natural Hazards, Threat Assessment Three articles in packet; course handout   Wednesday  -  Event Trees and Fault Trees Probability review Friday  -  Reliability Analyses Morgan article,  Reading in Risk,  pp. 24-25 Rasmussen,  Reading in Risk,  pp. 197-201 Yen and Tung, Reliability and Uncertainty in Packet Course handout.
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 3 Readings on Event and Fault Trees Morgan,  Reading in Risk , pp. 24-25 Rasmussen,  Reading in Risk,  pp. 197-201 Yen & Tung, Reliability & Uncertainty (Packet) This handout.
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 4 Learning Objectives 1.Be able to formulate, manipulate and evaluate: Influence Diagrams Event Trees  Decision trees  Fault Trees 2. Be able to construct fault trees, event trees and  risk profiles for realistic problems and to compute the  resulting estimates of failure probabilities.
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 5 Risk Assessment & Comparison by R. Wilson and E. Crouch Risk Estimation using Historical Data Easy to understand and perceived as accurate Models still required to make predictions because of trends in age, miles traveled, exposure, technology Only works if accidents have occurred at a sufficient rate over sufficient time to allow estimation of their frequency Models of Technologies Probabilistic models (event and fault trees) can be used to estimate  the new OR rare risks Need to identify possible and likely failure modes Calculate prob. of failure events based upon component failures Risk by Analogy For small health risks with no historical data base can use cancer rates in animals and volume or surface area relationships to estimate corresponding rates for humans.  Must extrapolate from rodents to man, and from high to low doses.
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 6 Event Trees and Fault Trees Influence Diagrams Show relationships among information and decisions Good for organizing ideas and describing problems
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 7 Influence Diagrams Show relationships among information and decisions. Good for organizing ideas and describing problems.
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  6 February 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 8 Influence Diagram Rainfall Depth Distribution of Rainfall within storm Inflow Flood Hydrograph Turbines operational?
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08_Reliability_Trees_Prob_Review - CEE 597 Lecture 08...

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