26_Sensitivity_Anal

26_Sensitivity_Anal - CEE 597 Lecture 25 Sensitivity...

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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 1 CEE 597 – Lecture 25 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 2 Learning objectives Students should be able to employ  sensitivity analysis and  Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis  to explain graphically and quantitatively  the relative contribution of different parameters  to overall system uncertainty.
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 3 Readings Stedinger, "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis”,  in packet CEE 597 Lecture Notes
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 4 Evaluation of Decisions Don’t confuse good decisions  with good outcomes.   Good decisions  balance the possible outcomes, their likelihood, and aversion to risk. Good outcomes  occur when nature’s lottery yields a  result one is happy about.  It may or may not reflect a good decision.  
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 5 Where is the impact?
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 6 On being over confident … Convictions are more Dangerous foes of truth than lies. -Nietzsche The trouble with people is not that they don’t know but  that they know so much that ain’t so. -Josh Billings
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 7 Sources of Uncertainty 1. Variability in natural phenomenon 2. Errors in model structure 3. Error in model parameters 4. Error in data describing system 5. Poor description of stochastic variables 6. Unanticipated changes in human activities
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 26 March 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 8 Taxonomy for Describing Uncertainty Natural Variability Replication or individual heterogeneity Temporal or spatial variation Knowledge Uncertainty Parameter  imprecision in specification of parameters values
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This note was uploaded on 03/29/2009 for the course CEE 5950 taught by Professor Carr during the Fall '08 term at Cornell.

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26_Sensitivity_Anal - CEE 597 Lecture 25 Sensitivity...

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