40_Risk_Management - Lecture 40 Risk Management putting it...

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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 1 Lecture 40 Risk Management putting it all together
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 2 –––– Delbert and Risk Management ––––
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 3 Risk Perception, Assessment, & Management
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 4 Developmental Stages in Risk Management All we have to do is get the numbers right. All we have to do is tell them the numbers. All we have to do is explain what we mean by the numbers. All we have to do is show them that they've accepted similar risks  in the past. All we have to do is show them that it's a good deal for them. All we have to do is treat them nice. All we have to do is make them partners. All of the above. SOURCE: Baruch Fischoff, “Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged:  Twenty Years of Process,”   Risk Analysis, 15 :137-45, 1995.
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 5 Delbert - What is wrong in Life
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 6 Informing Decisions in Democratic Society Criterion Measurement procedure Getting the science right Ask risk analytic experts who represent the spectrum of interested and affected parties to judge the technical adequacy of the risk- analytic effort Getting the right science Ask representatives of the interested and affected parties how well their concerns were addressed by the scientific work that informed the decision Getting the right participation Ask public officials and representatives of the interested and affected parties if there were other parties that should have been involved Getting the participation right Ask representatives of the parties whether they were adequately consulted during the process; if there were specific points when they could have contributed but did not have the opportunity Developing accurate, balanced, and informative synthesis Ask representatives of the parties how well they understand the bases for the decision; whether they perceived any bias in information coming from the responsible organization NRC, Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, Washington DC, 1996.
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 7 Risk Management How do we decide:   How safe is safe enough ? Who decides:   How safe is safe enough ? What is safety ?   What are we concerned about ?  Can we trust quantitative risk analysts  not to be biased ?
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 8 Then I decided. And then I decided that not taking risks was the greatest risk of all.
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30 April 2008 Jery Stedinger Lecture 40 9 Social Benefit versus Technical Risk Starr  (1969-In  Readings in Risk - classic widely quoted paper) How safe is safe enough ?   Use historical social decisions to estimate social preference. Assume
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40_Risk_Management - Lecture 40 Risk Management putting it...

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