CEE_597_Handout_3_12_Lave_editorial

CEE_597_Handout_3_12_Lave_editorial - CEE 597 - Risk...

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CEE 597 - Risk Analysis and Management March 12, 2008 Reading for today Charles Lave, "Costs of Going 55" <packet & this handoub Starting Friday: Transport Modelling, Toxic Emissions, and Chronic Risks Stevens and Swackhamer, "Environ. Pollution: A multimedia approach. . ." <packet> McKone, ". ..Exposure .. from Multiple Media through Multiple Pathways . ..I1 <packeb Later will read: Davis and Cornwell, "Air Pollution" Break: Drive CAREFULLY! Accidents do happen. Lecture is concerned with the analysis of public risks and costs -- Should we take actions that have only small impacts from a national ~respective? How do we evaluate the cost of safety? (Time, money, deaths, injuries?) How much is it reasonable to pay for safety? What is the value of human life? Lave's article is an interesting example which raises these issues. Lave's agument (i) the energy savings were trivial 1-2 O/o of US gasoline consumption [ Do as well with a elite sidewalk tire pressure patrol. ] (ii) 102 years of extra riding time to save one life amounts to sentence in Hell . (iii) if commuters were willing to pay 42% of an hour's wage, as employed by BART or METRO, then the resultant 1.3 million per life amounts to $6 billion per year waste. (iv) Aren't there more efficient ways to save 4500 lives for less money? Such as smoke detectors at $50,000-80,00O/life. Let efficient cars go 65, guzzlers to < 55. What do you think?
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I 1113~1 for he ~rs It1 01 be ladir: In hti p8ctilrep were imiling at ome- Lx .AI'I'E.\L ;II~ around fane! cars. .\nd \In(-c I'm jusl I!III~;' T~ICII .)~;31n. hc \\.as lac~ng them. huh? Nissan'c deli\ered a prnl ,lip 10 the. L-idr .3~ a dtedming anyuav. I don't mllid 11 \otl slip In J.D. c.ports car. "Rcpoq~tion~ng"? Tha~ \ (,la\ [or an occ~stonal m~mmar) or butlock That. San Jose. California marketers. To the sports-car lra~rrnll\. ~ltr too. is tomcrhing I had to cut back on. hut term is "sold out." JIIC~ bcta~tsc I'm on a diet, ac the fcllo~~ cald. Thr 1d~1 \lra\, 15 the naLrd prl in the Flat Robert \I' 3I~nn.Jr IS no rracon not to look at the menu. and ttir sc-icl~nn on Canadix~l isomen. Cancel Falrficld. Connrrtlr~lt Charlm SIOIIF~ m\ \ub.cnpilnn. .An ex-frmalc reader. na) lon. Oltlo Pamela >!ace The Datsun 280-ZX is desttned lo be a cports Addre55 \\lthl~eld car for the masses. The mdsteq arr a.w-5 Co111d ha\ c .i -1101 nf Lirn CvnITlns 111sh Clod fhr o/,nr;*r~r 2 a,< <ti, rr~cftll. n111 )OI, 2 '1 Lawrence \I. C.nod<on The Costs of Going 55 BY CHARLES A. LAVE 1 The campaip to educate us about he for less mone,? \\'ell, it has been estimated the U.S. now gets about fifteen mlies per i I benefits 01 the 53-mph limit has been stri- that placing a smoke detector in every gallon. But he shou-rooms are full of ran I 1 dent and persis~rnt. Somchox this uollder home in he would save about as many that can doublc or uiple this eGclenn If 1 drug. the 53 I~mit. is tuppostd to cure our lives in total as the 55-mph limit. and would wvc could pcrsuadc only 4 percent of he I narlc~nal energ! pr~~blem. save lives, and rost on]! 550.000 10 $80.000 per life saved: driven to sw~tch from con\entional cars , / cause t1i a11 10 pursue a more \,rtuous exts- or more ktdnei-dtalysts mach~ncs could fuel-effic~ent can. re would make a blqqer 1
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CEE_597_Handout_3_12_Lave_editorial - CEE 597 - Risk...

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