Unformatted text preview: Major Topics and Associated Readings for CEE 597
This is a guide to topics covered in CEE 597 and associated readings* 1. Risk Definitions & Concepts (People get hurt. People die.) Hoffbuhr, “The Probability of Risk,” **Broad, “Analyzing the Dangers” Gibbons “Review of Wilson and Crouch, Risk-Benefit Analysis” Shodell, "Risky Business" Bernstein, Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk *Wilson, "Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life" *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, "Rating the Risks" Zuckerman, "Battling Breast Cancer" US Dept. Health & Human Services, "SEER Cancer Statistics Review… " Gorman, “Rethinking Breast Cancer” *Morgan, "Probing the Question of Technology-Induced Risk" *Morgan, "Choosing and Managing Technology-Induced Risk" In the calculation of the expected value of winding 10 more turns on page 25, the path "does not break" "lose" is omitted. The computation should be: (.4)*(-120) + (.6) [ (.8)*(70) + (.2)*(-70) ] = –22.8 2. An Example: Fly or drive? (We can model that.) Evans, Frick, and Schwing, "Is it Safer to Fly or Drive?" with comment & reply Sivak, Weintraub, and Flannagan, "Nonstop Flying is Safer Than Driving" Failures in Technological Systems and Natural Hazards (Bad things happen.) Bignell and Fortune, “Three Mile Island” Bignell and Fortune, First page of Chapter 9 – Titanic Discussion Schwarz, “Deep Thoughts” – Titanic Technology Stix, “Bhopal - a tragedy in waiting” Glick, GENIUS, The Life and Science of Richard Feynman – Challenger Shuttle Feddermann, Engineering Ethics – Engineers, Safety and Historical accidents Zillman and Zimmerman articles in Ingleton (ed.), Natural Disaster Management Bhattacdhariee, “In Wake of disaster, scientists search …” Sally Ride, “Cold Comfort” Kennedy, “Science, Terrorism and Natural Disasters” Cohn, “Risk Management in an Uncertain World” Hass, “The Role of Risk Analysis in Understanding Bioterrorism” Liebschs, “Its’s a Disaster” Failure Models, Event Trees, and Risk Profiles (Serious modelling and Probability.) Yen and Tung, Reliability and Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic Design Benjamin and Cornell, “Models from Random Occurrences.” CEE 597 Handout on Poisson Processes (Lecture notes) Hillier and Lieberman, “Reliability” *Rasmussen, "The Appl. of PRA Tech. to Energy Technologies" *Keeney, Kulkarni and Nair, "Assessing the Risk of an LNG Terminal Raj and Glickman, "Gen. Hazardous Material Risk Profiles on RR Routes" -1- 3. 4. Major Topics and Associated Readings for CEE 597
Miller, D., “Hell on Rails” Stedinger, J., Risk Profile Examples 5. Airline Safety (Using non-parametric statistics.) Barnett et al., "Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings" Barnett and Higgins, "Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings" Barnett, and Wang, “Passenger-mortality risk estimates provide perspective …” Sivak, Flannagan, "Flying and Driving after the 9/11 Attacks" Stedinger, J., “Method of Randomization” + “Randomization Examples” Highway Safety: Going 55 (What it costs to save time.) National Research Council, "55: A Decade of Experience," Exec. Summary Lave, "Costs of Going 55" Modelling Toxic Emissions and Chronic Risks (It moves around.) Stevens and Swackhamer, "Environ. Pollution: A multimedia approach . . ." McKone, "...Exposure .. from Multiple Media and through Multiple Pathways..." Davis and Cornwell, “Air Pollution” Marshall, et al., “Risk Assessment at a Former Pesticide Production Facility” ATSDR Public Health Assessment Guidance Manual Food Safety, Carcinogens, and Health Risk Analyses (Could it kill you?) Paustenbach, “Primer on Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessment” Molak, "Toxic Chemicals Noncancer Risk Analysis …" *Rodricks and Taylor, "Appl. of Risk Assess. to Food Safety Decision Making" NRC, "Risk Assessment in the Federal Govn't: Managing the Process", 1983 McClellan, R.O., “A Risk Assessment Primer, ” 1995 Anderson et al., "Quantative Approaches in Use to Assess Cancer Risk" Crump, “Methods for Carcinogenic Risk Assessment” *Hattis and Kennedy, "Assessing Risks from Health Haz.: An Imperfect Science" Calabrese, “Hormesis: Changing view of the Dose-response” Abelson, Science Editorial, Risk Assessment of Low-Level Exposures *Ames et al., "Ranking Possible Carcinogenic Hazards" *Epstein/Swartz Comment on Ames et al.; Ames/Gold Response Colborn, Dumanoski, and Meyers, Our Stolen Future Rhomberg, “Are Chemicals in the Environment Disrupting Hormonal Control ...” Steingraber, Having Faith: An Ecologists Journey to Motherhood 9. Regulatory Policy & Economics (So, what do we do? What does economics tell us?) *Ruckelshaus, "Risk, Science and Democracy" Pinkowski, “Whose Risk Is It Anyway?” *Wildavsky, "No Risk is the Highest Risk of All" 6. 7. 8. -- -2- Major Topics and Associated Readings for CEE 597
-*Kelman, “Cost-Benefit Analysis: An Ethical Critique” Kent and Allen, “Overview of Risk-Based Priority Setting...” in Worst Things First? Morrall, "Review of the Record" Graham and Carrothers, “Cost-Benefit Analysis” Hammitt, “Valuing Health: …” Zeckhauser and Viscusi, “The Risk Management Dilemma” 10. AIDS and Public Health Policy (A ongoing concern.) Hearst and Hulley, "Preventing the Heterosexual Spread of AIDS" Burr, "Cuba and AIDS" 11. Decision, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Howard, "Practice and Promise of Decision Analysis" Stedinger, "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis"” 12. Perceptions of Risk and Risk Communication (What people think. What to say.) Slovic, "Perceptions of Risk" *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, "Rating the Risks" *Fischhoff, Watson, and Hope, "Defining Risk”" Sandman, “Definitions of Risk: Managing Outrage, Not Just the Hazard” -*Sandman, "Getting to Maybe: Comm. Aspects of Siting Haz. Waste Facilities *Pough and Krimsky, "Emergence of Risk Comm. Studies: Soc. and Pol. Context" *Johnson et al., "Informed Choice or Regulated Risk? Lessons from Radon" 13. Risk in the Media (Did you see the news?) Bean, "Speaking of Risk" Sandman, "Telling Reporters" Greenburg et al., "Network News Coverage" 14. Risk Management and the Public (Pulling it all together.) Randolph, “What Price Speed?” Lave, “Fixing the System” *Starr, “Social Benefit versus Technological Risk, Starr, "Risk Management & Assessement" Slovic, “Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy” • Articles with an asterisk are in the textbook, Glickman and Gough (eds.), Readings in Risk, Resources for the Future, 1990. Other articles should be in CEE 597 Readings for the term, on sale at Campus Store, except for those distributed in class. -3- ...
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