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Hw_3_Poisson___RP - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Homework Assignment #3 Guide to Readings Yen and Tung is a good read that summarizes trees and reliability models. Next topic is Poisson processes and models of failure arrivals for which lecture notes are primary source of equations, and examples, supplemented by Benjamin and Cornell. Third topic is reliability analysis: see Hillier and Lieberman in packet. It is hard to match reading 1-to-1 with lectures. Generally reading can be done AFTER the lectures unless noted otherwise. Weekly Homework sheets will provide a guide to course readings. Readings addressing Fault & Decision Trees, Poisson Processes, Reliability If this material can be grasp from the lecture notes, reading is not mandatory. *Morgan, Toy Airplane analysis, pp. 24-25 in Readings in Risk fault and event trees (supplement) *Rasmussen, " … PRA Tech. to Energy Technologies" [ Readings ] fault and event trees (supplement) Yen & Tung , Reliability & Uncertainty [packet] GOOD SUMMARY : trees, parallel/series & dynamic reliability Benjamin and Cornell: “Models for Random Occurrences” Poisson models (supplement) CEE 597 Lec. Notes with Examples for Poisson Processes Poisson process and different models Hillier and Lieberman , “Reliability” except 14.6 series/parallel & dynamic reliability Homework due Friday, February 15, 2008. Do problems 1-4 this weekend. (Be careful: forgetting Feb. 14 th is Valentines Day can result in certain risks.) 1) Since September 11, the potential for terrorism has been a major social and political concern. Broad “Analyzing the Dangers” (first handout) provides a nice summary of the concerns and issues related to Threat Assessment. Cohn, “Risk Management in an Uncertain World: A Perspective, ” (packet) and Kennedy,
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