Hw_11_AIDS_Morell_Kelman_MC_AIDS - CEE 597 – Risk...

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Unformatted text preview: CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Homework Assignment #11 Final EXAM Wednesday 7 May from 7-9:30 pm Final Three Weeks of Course (W) Morrall, J. F., "A Review of the Record" Graham and Carrothers, "Cost-Benefit Analysis" Kelman, "Cost-Benefit Analysis: An Ethical Critique" Hearst and Hulley, "Preventing … Spread of AIDS" Burr, "Cuba and AIDS" Slovic, "Perceptions of Risk" Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, "Rating the Risks" Fischhoff, Watson, and Hope, "Defining Risk" Sandman, “Risk = Hazard + Outrage” Pough and Krimsky, "Emergence of Risk Comm. ..." Sandman, "Getting to Maybe: Com. Aspects of Siting..." Bean, "Speaking of Risk" Sandman, "Telling Reporters" Greenburg et al., "Network News Coverage" Lave, “Fixing the System Starr, "Social Benefit versus Technological Risk" Starr, "Risk Management & Assessement " Slovic, “Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy” packet packet Readings p. 129 packet packet packet Readings p. 61 Readings p. 30 packet/key idea Readings p. 223 Readings p. 233 packet/short packet/short & sweet packet/important packet/short & sweet Readings p. 183 packet/key idea packet/great ideas ( F) ( M) ( M) (W) (W) ( F) ( F) ( F) ( M) ( M) (W) (W) (W) (W) ( F) Friday lecture will include ABC News Video on risk management -- Don’t miss it! HOMEWORK for Friday, April 25, 2008 Our Stolen Future 1) What is the single most important prescriptive message of Our Stolen Future by Colborn, Dumanoaki, and Meyers (in packet)? Why is the classical monotone increasing dose-response function used to model cancer risk likely to be inappropriate for endocrine impostors that mimic important human hormones? Having Faith 2) Steingraber, Having Faith: An Ecologists Journey to Motherhood, provides an update to Our Stolen Future. [See Steingraber in packet] CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Homework Assignment #11 (a) Why is it that persistent organic pollutants (POP) can accumulate with each level of a food chain? What is critical for this to occur? (b) Why are human infants and particularly breast-fed human infants at such risk from pollutants? (c) If the mother does not exhibit toxic health effects, why should we believe that a growing fetus or infant would be harmed? Is there proof this can happen? What is a life worth? 3) What were the three primary CRITERIA employed by John Morrall of OMB (see packet) in his paper "A Review of the Record" to compare risk-reduction regulations proposed by Federal agencies? What is a strong point and a weakness of each? What important lesson comes from this paper? Valuing clear air 4) Graham and Carrothers address the cost-benefit analysis EPA used to analyze regulations on sulfer in fuels for cars and light trucks intended to reduce emissions of ozone and particular matter. (a) What were the major steps and assumptions in the EPA analysis? (b) Based on the discussion provided by Graham and Carrothers , what are the 3 weakest links in that analysis? (c) How might those weaknesses be addressed? Is it just about money? 5) Kelman's article discusses problems with Benefit-Cost analysis. In one paragraph summarize what benefit-cost analysis is. In a second paragraph summarize and justify what it should be used for. In a third paragraph indicate what you think is Kelman's best point and why. Transmitting AIDS-Staying Healthy 6) Consider the analysis by Hearst and Hulley of AID risks. (a) How would the analysis need to change if one were interested in the spread of the disease in the US population, rather than the risk faced by an individual patient? How might their conclusions change? (25-50 words) (b) How should the fact that some individuals who are HIV positive may have infectivity rates 100 times higher than more typical rates affect the analysis and the articles conclusions? (This is what N. Hearst said he would change: 8/94) (c) If AIDS is as hard to transmit as the paper indicates (infectivity 2x10-3), how is it that some 1 million people in the US have become infected? CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Homework Assignment #11 Monte Carlo Uncertainty analysis 7) Okay, an important idea that has not been covered in the class is Monte Carlo Uncertainty analysis. For your very own pleasure and enjoyment, the CEE 597 web site has a spreadsheet to do a Monte Carlo Uncertainty analysis on the maximum ground level pollution concentration analysis from Hw #8. Whow ! You need to enter reasonable numbers for the mean and standard deviation of four variables that are likely to be subject to uncertainty (remember the sensitivity analysis you did), and also specify if the analysis should model that uncertainty by a normal or Gaussian ( –∞ < x < +∞ ) or lognormal (0 < x < +∞) distribution. a) Using the 500 values of maximum concentration generated on the spreadsheet, please generate your own GRAPH of the cumulative distribution of the maximum concentration (probability on vertical versus concentration on the horizontal axis). See figures 6-8 of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis by Stedinger in the packet. We have sorted the numbers already for your convenience on a separate sheet. To construct such a graph, you need to assign to each observed concentration a probability. We suggest assigning to the ith largest observation a cumulative (nonexceedance) probability of (i-0.5)/n. [One might think to assign to the ith largest observation the probability i/n; but then the smallest observation has cumulative probability 1/n, while the largest has probability n/n = 1.00; this is neither symmetric or particularly reasonable.(i-0.5)/n is symmetric and generates reasonable results for the cumulative probability for all observations. ] b) Show how you can use this program to determine quantitiatively which of the four variables has the largest and the smallest impact on the total uncertainty in the maximum concentration. (There are several reasonable choices.) c) If EPA wanted to use the upper the 99.5 percentile as a high-end value to bound the risk, what value should they employ based upon your results? d) Given that 500 replicates were computed, what is a 95% confidence interval for the true mean value of the maximum concentration? (See appendix of Sensitivity Analysis handout in packet; confidence intervals are something you should be able to compute to describe uncertainty.) ...
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This note was uploaded on 03/29/2009 for the course CEE 5950 taught by Professor Carr during the Fall '08 term at Cornell.

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