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Homework4_Forecasting_Solution_TTh

# Homework4_Forecasting_Solution_TTh - 311 Operations...

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311 Operations Management Spring 2009 Homework 4: Forecasting Due March 26, 2009 1. (20 points; 10 points per part) a. Calculate the value of α for exponential smoothing that is equivalent to a weekly moving average over a period of two years (N=52*2=104) 2/(104+1) = .019 = α b. What time units would the value of α =.15384615 as an exponential smoothing constant roughly translate into when evaluating a moving average over a year (Hint: Calculate the value of N and decide the how a year would be broken up as a result)? (2/.15384615)-1 = 12 = N, 12 periods in a year = months 2. (20 points; 10 points per part) Problem 9, parts a and b on page 507 in the textbook. a. 567 b. 460 3. (40 points; 10 points part a, 20 points part b, 10 points for correct MAD for each forecast is 20 points total for part c) Problem 14, parts a, b, and c, on page 508 in the textbook. a - c. Month Demand Exponential smoothing Absolute deviation T t F t FIT t Absolute deviation 1 31 31.00 1.00 30.00 31.00 2 34 31.00

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Homework4_Forecasting_Solution_TTh - 311 Operations...

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