Final Lecture

Final Lecture - Final Lecture Kondratieff Cycles First K...

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Final Lecture Kondratieff Cycles First K Cycle 1790-1840 Machine-made Textiles Second K Cycle 1840-90 Railroads Third K Cycle 1890-1940 Steel Telephone Financial Services Fourth K Cycle 1940-1990 Automobile Fifth K Cycle 1990 (2015 bust!) 2040 ---- Internet Discovered by a Marxist economist in the 1930s No regular tendency for capitalism to fall—regular, enduring tendency for crises 25-year booms followed by 25-year busts—busts were times of extreme crises So far since 1790, no exceptions Each based on particular product Critical feature-- When the economy is not working, all government seems ineffective, and nothing seems to work. Thus, radical or military solutions look more and more attractive. Identifying an enemy… It’s unwise to call for any program or plan that will not get you well established by 2015. So WHY is this happening? It’s not just a magical trend--there is a basis. Orthodox economics theory of cycles Multiplier Effect Kondratieff Cycle Dynamics Three different factors explain these cycles. 1. Mensch—Cycles in Technological Innovation
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Final Lecture - Final Lecture Kondratieff Cycles First K...

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