lecture outober 7 - Development Sociology 2070: Problems in...

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Development Sociology 2070: Problems in Contemporary Society Lecture Date: October 7, 2008 Demographic challenges: the ageing of societies A. Demographic model a. Demography is the study of populations i. Demo = weak ii. Graphic = science b. Basic model is population as in box (-born -> population -die->) i. It’s a continuous process c. Great variations on death (avg) i. Can calculate the odds for that person to live and until what age ii. Rate came in/ rate go out d. Change in fertility rates (depends on infant mortality rate/ contraception. e. If more people are born and less die there will be too many people on earth i. If fertility decreases we will still have population increase but at a slower rate ii. Rate coming in greater than coming out then population will increase iii. Can plot the number of people by year they are born and depending on the rate in which they go in and age they go out these age groups will be different sizes (slow fertility = small bar) iv. Seems simple but way lays against each other makes it complicated B. Key Terms a. Crude birth rate – the annual number of live births per 1000 people
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b. General fertility rate- the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (usually 15 to49 years old) c. Total fertility rate- the number of live births per woman d. Crude death rate (mortality rate)- the annual number of deaths per 1000 people e. Infant mortality rate- the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births f. Life expectancy- the number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels i. Have to survive then your odds are living longer are also higher and the cycle continuous to be calculated ii. Us has high expectancy rate especially in terms on Japan iii. Women have higher life expectancy than men C. Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) a. Darwin or Malthus i. True dismal of social science- wrote at age of utopia and believe progress of man, science making break throughs, social structure is natural, there was a freedom that we make society in different ways and so we can eliminate hunger and poverty etc. b. An essay on the principle of population (1798) c. Population grows dramatically (2,4,8,16) d. Food grows arithmetically (1,2,3,4) e. If you stabilize society and decrease mortality rate what will happen is that population tends to grow substantially f. Sometime in future, not clear when, you will be faced with lack of food g. Assumptions
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i. Lead to crisis, war, disease, famine and death ii. Access to food or water, or resource that people need would not be available to all and will cause an issue overall iii. Water and air are finite resources iv. Cant cultivate all land. .. diminishing returns and it’ll be much harder to keep up with population growth (has not happened yet, we have
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lecture outober 7 - Development Sociology 2070: Problems in...

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