Topic_9_Econ162bw

Topic_9_Econ162bw - Economics 162 The Economy of China...

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Unformatted text preview: Economics 162 The Economy of China Topic 9 Demographics and Labor Professor David Roland-Holst Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Tuesday and Thursday, 12:30-2PM, 10 Evans Hall Special Demographic Features irth and Death Rates (per thousand) Birth and Death Rates (per thousand) 60 40 50 20 30 10 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 Roland-Holst 2 Births Deaths pecial Demographic Characteristics Special Demographic Characteristics 1. Sustained decline of death rates at lower income levels, the majority in a large country 2. Sustained decline of birth rates due to overnment policy of family planning after 1970 government policy of family planning after 1970 1971: later, longer, fewer 980: One child policy to a target of 1.2 1980: One child policy to a target of 1.2 billion in 2000 (actually reached in 1995) Exceptions: minority groups, rural/gender Roland-Holst 3 Economics 162 Economics 162 Economics 162 Dependency Rates of Young and Old Roland-Holst 4 ge Structure of the Population Age Structure of the Population Present situation High working age population and low dependency rates for both young and old dependents Share of population of ages 15-64 is very high China 67% ow income countries 7% Low income countries 57% Middle-income countries 62% Opposite of Japan Roland-Holst 5 Economics 162 Economics 162 Economics 162 ge Structure of the Population Age Structure of the Population Near Future (till 2015) The trend continues (the share of working age population increase to 70% before decline) Longer term (from 2015 on) The trend reverses Roland-Holst 6 Economics 162 Economics 162 Economics 162 conomic Implications Economic Implications Dual problems In the immediate future: Serious unemployment risk, job creation is a primary concern In the distant future: Serious pension problem, how to finance it and provide support services Roland-Holst 7 Economics 162 Economics 162 Economics 162 lace of Employment: 1978...
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Topic_9_Econ162bw - Economics 162 The Economy of China...

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