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175 Proport±ona² Representat±on LEGISLATIVE STUDIES QUARTERLY, XXXI, 2, May 2006 175 ROB SALMOND Universit± o² Cali²ornia³Los Angeles Proportiona± R²pr²s²ntation and F²ma±² Par±iam²ntarians T³±s art±´²e asks, µW³at effe´t does t³e ´³o±´e of a nat±on¶s e²e´tora² system ³ave on t³e gender ´ompos±t±on of ±ts par²±ament over t±me?· I f±nd t³at t³e e²e´tora² system ³as an ±mportant part to p²ay, but prev±ous work ³as overstated, by fa´tors of between two and t³ree, ³ow mu´³ of a d±fferen´e an e²e´tora² system ´an make. T³±s art±´²e ´ontr±butes an updated non²±near t³eory of fema²e representat±on, an ±mproved dataset on women¶s representat±on a´ross spa´e and t±me, and more modern stat±st±´a² te´³n±ques t³an prev±ous²y used ±n resear´³ on t³±s quest±on. T³±s art±´²e ±s about t³e po²±t±´a² representat±on of women. Su´´ess±ve resear´³ers ³ave found t³at ²eft±sm, ³±g³ ²eve²s of fema²e ²abor for´e part±´±pat±on, and proport±ona² representat±on (PR) e²e´tora² ru²es ³ave a ´ausa² ±mpa´t on t³e per´entage of a nat±on¶s par²±ament w³o are women. Po²±´ymakers and a´t±v±sts ³ave re²±ed on t³±s resear´³ to ³e²p gu±de t³e±r t³±nk±ng about poss±b²e e²e´tora² reforms: µIf e²e´tora² system B ±s better for women t³an e²e´tora² system A, t³en system B s³ou²d be adopted· ±s a ´ommon ²±bera² refra±n. T³e ²±terature as ±t stands, ³owever, ±s not as usefu² to po²±´ymakers as ±t ´ou²d be, and ±t ³as suffered from some pers±stent met³odo²og±´a² s³ort´om±ngs. A²most a²² prev±ous stud±es on t³e quest±on of fema²e represen- tat±on ±n par²±ament ³ave asked, µW³at fa´tors exp²a±n d±fferen´es ±n ²eve²s of fema²e representat±on at a given point in time ?· T³±s quest±on, w³±²e ±nterest±ng, ±s not perfe´t²y su±ted to t³e po²±´ymaker¶s ±nqu±ry, w³±´³ ±s, µW³at effe´t wou²d a ´³ange ±n t³±s ±ndependent fa´tor ³ave on ²eve²s of women¶s representat±on over time ?· T³±s art±´²e a±ms to prov±de answers ´²oser to t³e po²±´y ´ommun±ty¶s demands and to ´apture t³e dynam±´s t³at ear²±er resear´³ ³as m±ssed. T³±s goa² requ±res t³at many of t³e met³ods of ana²ys±s used ±n prev±ous resear´³ be ret³oug³t. In part±´u²ar, t³e prev±ous pra´t±´e of us±ng pure²y ´ross- se´t±ona² datasets needs updat±ng. T³±s art±´²e makes use of a pane² dataset ´over±ng 21 advan´ed ±ndustr±a²±zed demo´ra´±es over a per±od of about 50 years, w±t³ data from 281 e²e´t±ons. Ear²±er est±mat±on pro´edures, w³±´³ re²±ed on pure²y ²±near regress±on mode²s, are a²so
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176 Rob Sa±mond updated ²ere. Fo±±ow³ng Mat±and´s (1993) ³n-dept² study of t²e growt² of fema±e representat³on ³n Norway, I propose a ±og³t-esque S-µurve mode± of t²e growt² of women´s representat³on ³n par±³ament.
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