ARE 106 HW 4

# ARE 106 HW 4 - ARE 106 HW#4#1 pop versus year(with least...

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Jeff Phang Tuesday Section 4-5PM ARE 106 HW #4 #1.  53  53.5  54  54.5  55  55.5  56  56.5  57  57.5  58  1965  1970  1975  1980  1985  1990 pop year pop versus year (with least squares fit) Y = -175. + 0.117X The model is linear except for the plateau section during the 1970s and is a ok predictor of the data. #2 Uk population = -174.779 + .116742(year) R 2 = 0.85542 σ hat =0.416165 (-9.576) (12.64) Model 1: OLS estimates using the 29 observations 1962-1990 Dependent variable: pop coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value ---------------------------------------------------------- const -174.779 18.2519 -9.576 3.57E-010 *** year 0.116742 0.00923671 12.64 7.50E-013 *** Mean of dependent variable = 55.9037 Standard deviation of dep. var. = 1.07475

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Sum of squared residuals = 4.67621 Standard error of the regression = 0.416165 Unadjusted R-squared = 0.85542 Adjusted R-squared = 0.85006 Degrees of freedom = 27 Durbin-Watson statistic = 0.0971946 First-order autocorrelation coeff. = 0.849318 Log-likelihood = -14.6895 Akaike information criterion (AIC) = 33.379 Schwarz Bayesian criterion (BIC) = 36.1136 Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) = 34.2354 Analysis of Variance: Sum of squares df Mean square Regression 27.6664 1 27.6664 Residual 4.67621 27 0.173193 Total 32.3426 28 1.19788 R^2 = 27.6664 / 32.3426 = 0.855417 F(1, 27) = 27.6664 / 0.173193 = 159.743 [p-value 7.5e-013] F Statistic : 159.743 T statistic : 12.64 t^2 = F 12.64^2 = 159.7 #3 Uk population (millions) = -174.779(millions) + .116742 *(year) The intercept is in the same units as the dependent variable: millions of people. The slope is measured in millions of people per year.
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ARE 106 HW 4 - ARE 106 HW#4#1 pop versus year(with least...

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