Are 106 - Are 106 Econmetrics Havenner Winter 2008 Molly...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Are 106 Econmetrics Havenner Winter 2008 Molly Abramson Dennis Choung Lisa tran Kelvin mong Charles Lueng Hardest class in the major, lots of stats. Forecasting. 1. OUTLINE: Regression word problems: given a problem, run it in a computer. Then write it up in words. a. Tip: write the regressions for a lawyer. In plain English and precisely and exactly what you learned. Don’t leave anything out. b. HWs will be due at the beginning of class on Wednesdays. i. First one: find the software, get it to run on your computer. 2. Why econometrics? a. Your can hypothesis test. b. There is a derived demand for econometrics due to formal hypothesis testing. i. Ex. does red wine eliminate heart attacks? Same diet, different drinks, varying rates of heart attacks. ii. c. Key, is there a statically significant affect? 3. ex. did the price at which Exxon price sold oil to Alaska differ significantly from the market price? a. Alaska says Exxon didn’t pay enough, Exxon says they paid too much. 4. ex. High fructose corn syrup. P fixing?
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
5. Another reason for econometrics besides hypothesis testing. a. Forecasting. i. Forecasts are for everything, ex. the # of 800 #s. or # of cards sold on valentines day. Cards are valueless after Valentines day. You want enough, but not too many cards. b. Policy Simulations i. Aka Estimating relationships in the text. ii. Est a relationship between sales and advertising. Suppose you increase the advertising budge by 50%. What would happen? iii. What would happen to the macro economy if the fed hit this interest rate over the next 14 quarters. Effect on sales/output. 1. ex. suppose you change irrigation/fertilization of an acre, what would be the affect ton yield. 6. The book a. The last edition was 2002. Book is great. Every page is important bc it’s tight and brief. b. We’ll be using Gretel i. 5-6 th week, we’ll like it. 7. LOAD GRETL this THURSDAY 1/8/09!!!!!!!!!!! a. So everyone has the same version, no auto updates. So it’s locked b. Syllabus is on are106.ucdavis.edu c. Free/clean 8. Prof a. UC profs do teaching/research and service. 9. Notes a. Weekly hand written notes posted online i. Download notes (short book) + text book. ii. Print those notes, these are the first line of study. These are posted after bc that’s passive learning. 1. what did he say and why did he say it? 10. MIDTERM FEBURARY 4 TH ONLY 1. a. Final is 55% 11. Statistical review. Not much time on this. a. Ch 2: Review READ CH 2 b. 2.1 random variables and probability i. Normal distribution and related distributions, no binomial/ no poison ii. We’re doing normal and ρ, x^2 and F iii. c. 2.2 mathematical expectation, mean and variance
Background image of page 2
i. ii.
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
iii. iv. d. The balance point is the center of mass i. E(X) ii. The center of effort in sales, etc. it can be anything iii. For us it’s expected value e. For discrete, random variable, the Expected value = i. E(X) = 1 n Σ xi * F(xi) f. For continuous i. E(X) – infinity + infinity ∫ x*f(x)dx g. Expected value of some random variable
Background image of page 4
Image of page 5
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 04/11/2009 for the course ARE 106 taught by Professor Havenner during the Winter '09 term at UC Davis.

Page1 / 18

Are 106 - Are 106 Econmetrics Havenner Winter 2008 Molly...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 5. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online