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Hw 2 #1 - March-06 April-06 May-06 June-06 July-06...

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3 month 3 month 6 month Actual simple weighted simple α = 0 α = .2 α =.5 α =.8 α =1 March-06 61995 56283.5 56283.5 56283.5 56283.5 56283.5 April-06 55992 56283.5 57425.8 59139.25 60852.7 61995 May-06 60071 56283.5 57139.04 57565.63 ### 55992 June-06 59522 59352.67 59039.7 56283.5 57725.43 58818.31 ### 60071 July-06 60978 58528.33 57568.7 56283.5 58084.75 59170.16 ### 59522 August-06 62870 60190.33 60450.5 56283.5 58663.4 60074.08 ### 60978 September-06 54936 61123.33 61967.6 60238 56283.5 59504.72 61472.04 ### 62870 October-06 52660 59594.67 57920.4 59061.5 56283.5 58590.97 58204.02 ### 54936 November-06 51003 56822 54363.8 58506.17 56283.5 57404.78 55432.01 ### 52660 December-06 54879 52866.33 51893.4 56994.83 56283.5 56124.42 53217.5 ### 51003 January-07 50311 52847.33 53494.3 56221 56283.5 55875.34 54048.25 ### 54879 February-07 52547 52064.33 51750.6 54443.17 56283.5 54762.47 52179.63 ### 50311 March-07 62783 52579 52109.4 52722.67 56283.5 54319.38 52363.31 ### 52547 April-07 57059 55213.67 58465 54030.5 56283.5 56012.1 57573.16 ### 62783 May-07 62685 57463 58325 54763.67 56283.5 56221.48 57316.08 ### 57059 June-07 58581 60842.33 61007 56710.67 56283.5 57514.18 60000.54 ### 62685 July-07 58903 59441.67 59660 57327.67 56283.5 57727.55 59290.77 ### 58581 August-07 63508 60056.33 59184.6 58759.67 56283.5 57962.64 59096.88 ### 58903 September-07 55373 60330.67 61633.8 60586.5 56283.5 59071.71 61302.44 ### 63508 October-07 55842 59261.33 357180.7 59351.5 56283.5 58331.97 58337.72 ### 55373 November-07 50912 58241 56467.9 59148.67 56283.5 57833.97 57089.86 ### 55842 December-07 53038 54042.33 52837.1 57186.5 56283.5 56449.58 54000.93 ### 50912 January-08 49443 53264 52680.6 56262.67 56283.5 55767.26 53519.47 ### 53038 February-08 51188 51131 21018.8 54686 56283.5 54502.41 51481.23 ### 49443 March-08 56849 51223 50849.5 52632.67 56283.5 53839.53 51334.62 ### 51188 April-08 53731 52493.33 54410.1 52878.67 56283.5 54441.42 54091.81 55674 56849 May-08 55328 53922.67 54412.1 52526.83 56283.5 54299.34 53911.4 54119.6 53731 June-08 49488 55302.67 55001 53262.83 56283.5 54505.07 54619.7 ### 55328 July-08 50281 52849 51664.3 52671.17 56283.5 53501.66 52053.85 ### 49488 August-08 51434 51699 50547.8 52810.83 56283.5 52857.53 51167.43 ### 50281 e1 e1^2 |e1| e2 e2^2 |e2| e3 e3^2 |e3| e4 March-06 61995 April-06 55992 May-06 60071 June-06 59522
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July-06 60978 August-06 62870 September-06 54936 -6187.33 38283093.78 6187.33 -7031.6 ### 7031.6 -5302 28111204 5302 -1347.5 October-06 52660 -6934.67 48089601.78 6934.67 -5260.4 ### 5260.4 -6401.5 ### 6401.5 -3623.5 November-06 51003 -5819 33860761 5819 -3360.8 ### 3360.8 -7503.17 ### 7503.17 -5280.5 December-06 54879 2012.67 4050827.11 2012.67 2985.6 8913807.36 2985.6 -2115.83 ### 2115.83 -1404.5 January-07 50311 -2536.33 6432986.78 2536.33 -3183.3 ### 3183.3 -5910 34928100 5910 -5972.5 February-07 52547 482.67 232967.11 482.67 796.4 634252.96 796.4 -1896.17 ### 1896.17 -3736.5 March-07 62783 10204 104121616 10204 10673.6 ### 10673.6 ### ### 10060.33 6499.5 April-07 57059 1845.33 3405255.11 1845.33 -1406 1976836 1406 3028.5 ### 3028.5 775.5 May-07 62685 5222 27269284 5222 4360 19009600 4360 7921.33 ### 7921.33 6401.5 June-07 58581 -2261.33 5113628.44 2261.33 -2426 5885476 2426 1870.33 ### 1870.33 2297.5 July-07 58903 -538.67 290161.78 538.67 -757 573049 757 1575.33 ### 1575.33 2619.5 August-07 63508 3451.67 11914002.78 3451.67 4323.4 ### 4323.4 4748.33 ### 4748.33 7224.5 September-07 55373 -4957.67 24578458.78 4957.67 -6260.8 ### 6260.8 -5213.5 ### 5213.5 -910.5 October-07 55842 -3419.33 11691840.44 3419.33 -301338.7 ### 301338.7 -3509.5 ### 3509.5 -441.5 November-07 50912 -7329 53714241 7329 -5555.9 ### 5555.9 -8236.67 ### 8236.67 -5371.5 December-07 53038 -1004.33 1008685.44 1004.33 200.9 40360.81 200.9 -4148.5 ### 4148.5 -3245.5 January-08 49443 -3821 14600041 3821 -3237.6 ### 3237.6 -6819.67 ### 6819.67 -6840.5 February-08 51188 57 3249 57 30169.2 ### 30169.2 -3498 12236004 3498 -5095.5 March-08 56849 5626 31651876 5626 5999.5 ### 5999.5 4216.33 ### 4216.33 565.5 April-08 53731 1237.67 1531818.78 1237.67 -679.1 461176.81 679.1 852.33 726472.11 852.33 -2552.5 May-08 55328 1405.33 1974961.78 1405.33 915.9 838872.81 915.9 2801.17 ### 2801.17 -955.5 June-08 49488 -5814.67 33810348.44 5814.67 -5513 30393169 5513 -3774.83 ### 3774.83 -6795.5 July-08 50281 -2568 6594624 2568 -1383.3 1913518.89 1383.3 -2390.17 ### 2390.17 -6002.5 August-08 51434 -265 70225 265 886.2 785350.44 886.2 -1376.83 ### 1376.83 -4849.5 SUMS -21912 ### 85000.67 -286082.8 ### 408704.2 ### ### 105170.33 -38042 -913 19345606.47 3541.69 -11920.12 ### 17029.34 -1292.6 ### 4382.1 -1585.08 MFE MSE MAD MFE MSE MAD MFE MSE MAD MFE e5 e5^2 |e5| e6 e6^2 |e6| e7 e7^2 |e7| e8 March-06 61995 April-06 55992 May-06 60071 June-06 59522 July-06 60978 August-06 62870
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