Hw 2 - Hw 2 #1 Based on the MSE: Weighted: The 3 month...

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Hw 2 #1 Based on the MSE: Weighted: The 3 month simple moving average predicted the outcome best because it had the lowest MSE of 19345606.47. Exponential: the simple exponential smoothing with α = .5 predicted the outcome the best because it had the lowest MSE value at 17853960.93. This implies that the data is neither very random nor very consistent. Overall: The simple exponential smoothing with α = .5 was the best predictor overall. This shows that the information from last month’s data is neither highly random nor very consistent. The trends have not been very consistent so by placing half the weight on the actual data and half on the previous forecast we can balance the variability with the trend. The MFE is consistently negative. This implies that the models have a positive bias and that they are overestimating the outcome for the future data. b) Based on the MSE: Weighted: The 6th month simple moving average predicted the outcome best among the weighted average models because it had the lowest MSE at 3112081.14
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This note was uploaded on 04/11/2009 for the course ARE 157 taught by Professor Whitney during the Fall '08 term at UC Davis.

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Hw 2 - Hw 2 #1 Based on the MSE: Weighted: The 3 month...

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