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INEG4433_LSN17_08

INEG4433_LSN17_08 - LSN 16 1 INEG 4433– Engineering...

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Unformatted text preview: LSN 16 1 INEG 4433– Engineering Design and Systems Management INEG 4433 Engineering Design and Systems Management Lesson 15: Sensitivity Analysis/Pugh Method LSN 16 2 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management LSN 16 3 INEG 4433– Engineering Design and Systems Management Where are We? Last Time Decision Making Next Time Implementation This Time Pugh Method/QFD Pugh Method/QFD LSN 16 4 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management The System Decision Process LSN 14 5 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management Interpretation of Alternatives Planning for Action Decision Making Criteria Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 Utility Scores Executable Fielding Plan Multi-Attribute Utility Utility Curves Scaling Sensitivity Analysis Critical Path Method Gantt Chart Systems Engineering Design Process (SEDP) Decision LSN 14 6 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis LSN 14 7 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Analysis - Why? Why? Decisions often made based on inexact models • Expensive, irreversible decisions • Must understand the dependency of the model’s output on changes in variables and specs in the model Decision-Making in our process is based on scaling and weighting • Evaluation Measure Global Weighting is inexact • Weights can make the difference between choosing one alternative over another • Crucial that a sensitivity analysis be done on the weights used! LSN 14 8 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Analysis - How? How? Point of Indifference • The value(s) of the variable(s) in question for which two alternatives will be equivalent • DM - Value of the global weight of a specific evaluation measure for which two or more alternatives are equally appealing (i.e. same Total Value Score) Stipulations • Sum of global weights always will equal one • We will evaluate only one evaluation measure at a time • As we vary the weight of one evaluation measure, the ratio of the other evaluation measures to the remaining weight will remain the same LSN 14 9 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management Graphical Method Graphical Method 1. Determine which evaluation measure you wish to evaluate 2. Set up a graph • X-axis is the Global Weight (0 – 1.0) • Y-axis is the Total Value Score (0 – 100) 3. For Each Alternative do the following: • Plot the original global weight of the evaluation measure and the corresponding Total Value Score • Determine the Total Value Score for that alternative assuming the global weight of the evaluation measure is 1.0 and plot that point • Draw the line (between 0 and 1.0) determined by the two points plotted above N The points at which the lines cross are the indifference points n At a given global weight it is easy to see the best alternative LSN 14 10 INEG 4433 – Systems Engineering Design and Management...
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INEG4433_LSN17_08 - LSN 16 1 INEG 4433– Engineering...

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