INEG4433_LSN17_08

INEG4433_LSN17_08 - LSN 16 1 INEG 4433 Engineering Design...

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Unformatted text preview: LSN 16 1 INEG 4433 Engineering Design and Systems Management INEG 4433 Engineering Design and Systems Management Lesson 15: Sensitivity Analysis/Pugh Method LSN 16 2 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management LSN 16 3 INEG 4433 Engineering Design and Systems Management Where are We? Last Time Decision Making Next Time Implementation This Time Pugh Method/QFD Pugh Method/QFD LSN 16 4 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management The System Decision Process LSN 14 5 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management Interpretation of Alternatives Planning for Action Decision Making Criteria Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 Utility Scores Executable Fielding Plan Multi-Attribute Utility Utility Curves Scaling Sensitivity Analysis Critical Path Method Gantt Chart Systems Engineering Design Process (SEDP) Decision LSN 14 6 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis LSN 14 7 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Analysis - Why? Why? Decisions often made based on inexact models Expensive, irreversible decisions Must understand the dependency of the models output on changes in variables and specs in the model Decision-Making in our process is based on scaling and weighting Evaluation Measure Global Weighting is inexact Weights can make the difference between choosing one alternative over another Crucial that a sensitivity analysis be done on the weights used! LSN 14 8 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Analysis - How? How? Point of Indifference The value(s) of the variable(s) in question for which two alternatives will be equivalent DM - Value of the global weight of a specific evaluation measure for which two or more alternatives are equally appealing (i.e. same Total Value Score) Stipulations Sum of global weights always will equal one We will evaluate only one evaluation measure at a time As we vary the weight of one evaluation measure, the ratio of the other evaluation measures to the remaining weight will remain the same LSN 14 9 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management Graphical Method Graphical Method 1. Determine which evaluation measure you wish to evaluate 2. Set up a graph X-axis is the Global Weight (0 1.0) Y-axis is the Total Value Score (0 100) 3. For Each Alternative do the following: Plot the original global weight of the evaluation measure and the corresponding Total Value Score Determine the Total Value Score for that alternative assuming the global weight of the evaluation measure is 1.0 and plot that point Draw the line (between 0 and 1.0) determined by the two points plotted above N The points at which the lines cross are the indifference points n At a given global weight it is easy to see the best alternative LSN 14 10 INEG 4433 Systems Engineering Design and Management...
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This note was uploaded on 04/12/2009 for the course INEG 4433 taught by Professor Pohl during the Spring '09 term at Arkansas.

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INEG4433_LSN17_08 - LSN 16 1 INEG 4433 Engineering Design...

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