Notes_lecture3

Notes_lecture3 - Lecture 3 Fertility and immigration Growth in US population(and ultimately labor force In 1790 4 million people by 1920 106

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1 Lecture 3: Fertility and immigration • Growth in US population (and, ultimately, labor force) – In 1790, 4 million people; by 1920, 106 million (27x increase) • Causes of population growth – High (but declining) fertility accounts for half of the increase. Immigration explains the rest. – Serious declines in mortality began only in the early 20 th century (except for the very young). • Economic explanations for: – Fertility declines – Swings in immigration rates Recall from last class… Period GNP Population GNP/P I. 19 th century 1800-55 3.99 3.03 0.93 1855-90 4.00 2.41 1.55 II. 20 th century 1890-1927 3.76 1.73 2.00 1929-66 3.18 1.30 1.86 1966-89 2.69 1.00 1.67 Source: Abramovitz and David, “Growth in the Era of Knowledge-Based Progress,” Cambridge Economic History of the US , 2000.
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2 Determinants of Population Growth Δ P B – D + I – E P = population, B = births, D = deaths, I = immigrants, E = emigrants. Δ P/P B/P – D/P + (I/P – E/P) Δ P/P CBR – CDR + NIR where CBR = crude birth rate, CDR = crude death rate, NIR = net immigration rate. (Natural increase = CBR – CDR) Alternative fertility measures • CBR does not adjust for the age or sex composition of the population. • General fertility rate = # Births/(# women, age 15-44) OR Total fertility rate = [Births to women aged 15-19/(women aged 15-19)] + [Births to women aged 20-24/(women aged 20-24)]… to age 44. • Child/woman ratio = # kids 0-5 yrs/ # women 15-44 yrs Can measure using the Census. Do not need birth records. Problem = What about infant mortality?
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3 Population growth NOT due to declines in mortality – at least not until the 20 th century Source: Peter Lindert,
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This note was uploaded on 04/13/2009 for the course ECON 183 taught by Professor Boustan during the Winter '09 term at UCLA.

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Notes_lecture3 - Lecture 3 Fertility and immigration Growth in US population(and ultimately labor force In 1790 4 million people by 1920 106

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