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Notes_lecture3

Notes_lecture3 - Lecture 3 Fertility and immigration Growth...

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1 Lecture 3: Fertility and immigration Growth in US population (and, ultimately, labor force) In 1790, 4 million people; by 1920, 106 million (27x increase) Causes of population growth High (but declining) fertility accounts for half of the increase. Immigration explains the rest. Serious declines in mortality began only in the early 20 th century (except for the very young). Economic explanations for: Fertility declines Swings in immigration rates Recall from last class… Period GNP Population GNP/P I. 19 th century 1800-55 3.99 3.03 0.93 1855-90 4.00 2.41 1.55 II. 20 th century 1890-1927 3.76 1.73 2.00 1929-66 3.18 1.30 1.86 1966-89 2.69 1.00 1.67 Source: Abramovitz and David, “Growth in the Era of Knowledge-Based Progress,” Cambridge Economic History of the US , 2000.
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2 Determinants of Population Growth Δ P B – D + I – E P = population, B = births, D = deaths, I = immigrants, E = emigrants. Δ P/P B/P – D/P + (I/P – E/P) Δ P/P CBR – CDR + NIR where CBR = crude birth rate, CDR = crude death rate, NIR = net immigration rate. (Natural increase = CBR – CDR) Alternative fertility measures CBR does not adjust for the age or sex composition of the population. General fertility rate = # Births/(# women, age 15-44) OR Total fertility rate = [Births to women aged 15-19/(women aged 15-19)] + [Births to women aged 20-24/(women aged 20-24)]… to age 44. Child/woman ratio = # kids 0-5 yrs/ # women 15-44 yrs Can measure using the Census. Do not need birth records. Problem = What about infant mortality?
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3 Population growth NOT due to declines in mortality – at least not until the 20 th century Source: Peter Lindert, Long Term Factors in American Economic Growth, 1996. (Comment to Fogel) e 0
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