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exercise25 - Exercise 25 Philosophy 102(Maher Spring 2009...

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Exercise 25 Philosophy 102 (Maher) Spring 2009 For now, simplify your answers just to see how big the probabilities are. But in quizzes and the exam, you need not simplify; a correct numeric expression will be sufficient. 1. In a routine physical exam, Paul was tested for a disease that only 1 person in 10,000 has. The characteristics of the test are that 99% of people who have the disease test positive and 2% of those who don’t have the disease test positive. Let T = the test result was positive, D = Paul has the disease. Find p ( D | T ). 2. A box contains 5 dice, of which four are fair but one is biased so it lands six half the time. A die is drawn from the box and tossed twice. Let S = the die lands six both times, B = the die is biased. Find p ( B | S ). 3. In a certain town, 85% of the cabs are green and the other 15% are blue. One night a cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident. A witness was tested under conditions like those on the night of the accident and found to identify blue cabs as blue 80% of the time and to identify green cabs as blue 20% of the time. Let
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