Exercise 25Philosophy 102 (Maher)Spring 2009For now, simplify your answers just to see how big the probabilities are. But in quizzes and theexam, you need not simplify; a correct numeric expression will be sufficient.1. In a routine physical exam, Paul was tested for a disease that only 1 person in 10,000 has.The characteristics of the test are that 99% of people who have the disease test positive and2% of those who don’t have the disease test positive. LetT= the test result was positive,D= Paul has the disease. Findp(D|T).2. A box contains 5 dice, of which four are fair but one is biased so it lands six half the time. Adie is drawn from the box and tossed twice. LetS= the die lands six both times,B= thedie is biased. Findp(B|S).3. In a certain town, 85% of the cabs are green and the other 15% are blue. One night a cab wasinvolved in a hit-and-run accident. A witness was tested under conditions like those on thenight of the accident and found to identify blue cabs as blue 80% of the time and to identifygreen cabs as blue 20% of the time. Let
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Type I and type II errors, white balls, Belinda, correct numeric expression