Jordan DA - Dartmouth 2K9 1 TOC TOC.1 1NC.2 2NC...

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6ab3e9d2cfe18a684d21e02caf74b3a29cf461e5.docx Dartmouth 2K9 1 TOC TOC ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1NC .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2NC NATO/Afghanistan Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 4 Last printed 9/4/09 7:00 PM 1
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6ab3e9d2cfe18a684d21e02caf74b3a29cf461e5.docx Dartmouth 2K9 2 1NC Jordan is on the brink of collapse – an independent Palestine causes anarchy. Bligh, 2011. (Alexander Bligh, director of the Middle East Research Center, Ariel University center, and former adviser on Arab Affairs to the prime minister of Israel, “Jordan on verge of survival showdown?” 07/10/2011. Jerusalem Post. . CR) Jordan’s prime minister revealed that his country would vote against Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly in September. Jordan has been relatively quiet since the outbreak of popular unrest engulfing many Arab and North African countries. However, two recent developments perhaps indicate that the kingdom is far from complacent . Last Saturday, King Abdullah declared a reshuffle in the cabinet not five months after it was sworn in – clearly in response to demonstrations protesting alleged government corruption . Earlier that week, the Dubai-based daily Al-Bayan published a leaked report that Jordan’s prime minister had revealed that his country would vote against Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly in September – thus breaking Arab consensus. Unsurprisingly Jordan is facing two major challenges . On the one hand, there are mounting domestic pressures , especially from the Beduin South, the backbone of the regime for over 90 years. So far, the king has been following in the footsteps of his late father , King Hussein, and has demonstrated no less than brilliance in balancing all domestic players. On the other hand, Jordan is nearing a crossroads in its attitude toward the Palestinians . In my book, The Political Legacy of King Hussein (2004), I analyze the advantages that Hussein could have found in losing of the West Bank to Israel. First and foremost, Israel would be in charge of resolving the Palestinian issue, and the Palestinians would not be in a position to claim Jordan as a Palestinian state. In recent months, Israel seems to have divorced itself from its traditional policy of resisting a Palestinian state at all costs. In the Jordanian mind, this translates to a position that might endanger the very existence of the Hashemite Kingdom , as well as the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Peace Treaty, and a de-facto abandonment of the traditional friendship between the two countries that has survived many crisis since 1960. Jordan has tried (and usually succeeded ) in letting Israel lead the way against the creation of a Palestinian state . However, Israel is now seen as being too weak to halt a Palestinian independence process. The creation of such a state would put Jordan’s very existence in jeopardy: The PLO is formally and spiritually committed to taking over all of mandatory Palestine – i.e., Jordan, the territories and Israel . Considering that Israel would hold its ground within the 1967 lines, the
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