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CHAPTER_13 - CHAPTER 13 MEASURING AND FORECASTING DEMAND...

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CHAPTER 13 MEASURING AND FORECASTING DEMAND LEARNING OBJECTIVES Know the definition of demand and its application and importance in tourism development planning. Understand the factors determining the magnitude and fluctuations of demand. Become able to apply various methods to measure and forecast demand. CHAPTER OUTLINE Outline Summary Point of Emphasis 1. Why demand is important Data on demand are vital to any tourism organization, supplier, finance source, developer or prospective developer. Also needed to evaluate essential promotion. Demand: number of arrivals, modes of transportation used, length of stays, expenditure patterns, total expenditures. 2. Demand to a destination Explain equation: D = F (Propensity, Resistance). Consider traveler’s psychographic profile, motivation, socio- economic status, and demographic characteristics. Resistance depends upon attractiveness of various destinations, economic distance, costs, quality of services, effectiveness of advertising, seasonality. Resistance is inversely related to demand. 3. Measuring demand Strongly limited and influenced by quantity and quality of supply components. Actual measures are visitor arrivals, visitor days or nights, amounts spent. D = No. of Visitors x av. No. of Days and/or Nights at destination. Such data of great interest to park managers (days) and lodging managers (nights). D = No. of Visitor Days and/or Nights x av. Expenditure per Day/Night. This expenditure data most easily understood by the public and politicians.
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