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CHAPTER 20 TOURISM’S FUTURE LEARNING OBJECTIVES To examine forecasts concerning the growth of international tourism. To identify the major global forces that are shaping the tourism of tomorrow. To understand the impacts, both positive and negative, which these forces are likely to have on tourism markets and on the ability of destinations to respond to the demands of these markets. To highlight the powerful and positive impact that the environmental movement has had, and will increasingly have, on tourism development. CHAPTER OUTLINE Outline Summary Points of Emphasis 1. Tourism in the Third There were 25 million international arrivals in 1950 and 689 million in Millennium 2001. Tourism’s growth is expected to continue for many years. 2. The projected impacts of International tourism arrivals are projected to reach 1.6 billion in 2020. Tourism in 2020 This is a 4.3 percent per annum growth rate. 3. The nature of future Growth is expected to continue, but the third millennium will be growth different in many ways than previous decades. Mature adults of the developed nations sense that there are stirrings of anxiety about the continuation of their secure and attractive lifestyles. Others less fortunate see these changes as glimmers of hope for improvements in their lives, but these glimmers are nebulous. 4. Leisure, tourism and Some significant global changes affecting tourism are: possible decrease society in the third in leisure time; tourism being blamed for culture and environment millennium destruction; homogenization of lifestyles; and sustainability of the present broad access to recreation and travel opportunities. Tomorrow’s tourism will likely face a number of constraints and limitations such as a change in tourist’s demands and behaviors; correcting bad judgments and excesses of the past; but also enjoying innovative and exciting new travel products and experiences. 5. New Realities – New Important forces are: economic, a decline in the mega- nation – rise of the Horizons: Forces city state, political, socio-environmental awareness, technology,
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Impacting the Future of emergence of the knowledge based society, demographic shifts, shifting Tourism value systems, diversity within a homogeneous world, the quest for stability and security, pressures for mass migration, change from a service to an experience economy, evolution of leisure time, and competition for leisure time. 6.
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This note was uploaded on 04/15/2009 for the course HTM 2454 taught by Professor Bjmihalik during the Spring '06 term at Virginia Tech.

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