417hw4f07Key - AEM 417 Fall 2007 Homework 4 Answer Key 1....

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Unformatted text preview: AEM 417 Fall 2007 Homework 4 Answer Key 1. 12 points Case Study: Taco Shells 1. (2 points) Discrete chance nodes really would be correct, because only integer numbers of shells will be unbroken. However, the chance node would have to have 500 branches, so a continuous fan is more practical. 2 . (3 points) Input Data vs Input Data X <= 450.300 95.0% X <= 428.700 5.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 420 430 440 450 460 470 480 490 BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only BestFit Student Version For Academic Use Only The new supplier certainly has the higher expected number of usable shells per case. The two CDFs are about the same in terms of riskiness. 3. (3 points) Expected cost per usable shell for new supplier = $0.0529 Expected cost per usable shell for current supplier = $0.0538 4. (3 points)- Average number of unbroken shells for new supplier = 473. (Add up all 12 observations, and divide by 12. Thus, average cost per usable shell for new supplier = $25/473 = $0.0529. - Average number of unbroken shells for current supplier = 441. Average cost per usable shell for current supplier = $24.74 / 441 = $0.0539- Note that these results are very close to those found in question 3....
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This note was uploaded on 05/01/2008 for the course AEM 4170 taught by Professor Vanes,c. during the Spring '08 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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417hw4f07Key - AEM 417 Fall 2007 Homework 4 Answer Key 1....

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