Climate Change and Human Health Slides

Climate Change and - Climate Change and Human Health Climate Change and Human Health Mark Oberle [email protected] http/sphcm.washington.edu

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1 Climate Change and Human Health Mark Oberle [email protected] http://sphcm.washington.edu/ November 27, 2007 Climate Change and Human Health z The basic facts z Human impacts z How did we get into this mess? z Looking ahead Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change z http://www.ipcc.ch/ The greenhouse effect The natural greenhouse effect increases surface temperatures by about 30 o C. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations increases surface temperatures. Industrial revolution and the atmosphere The current concentrations of greenhouse gases and their rates of change are unprecedented.
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2 Sources of greenhouse gases Deforestation hotspots ( Agriculture & forestry practices > 30% of Anthropogenic GHG) Sources: THE NATURE CONSERVANCY AND HANSEN AND DEFRIES, 2004; cited Science 27 April 2007. vol316:536-537. ht p:/ www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf The most notorious example: The Amazon Comparing different drivers of change W m-2 Radiative forcing: measures the change in the Earth’s energy balance due to different causes of climate change. Increased by 20% over 1995 - 2005 Consistent across climate system ¾ Surface temperatures increasing ¾ Tropospheric temperatures increasing ¾ Atmospheric water vapor increasing ¾ Ocean heat content increasing … ¾ Sea level rising Unequivocal ¾ More intense and longer droughts ¾ Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing ¾ Extreme temperatures increasing ¾ Tropical cyclone intensity increasing ¾ Arctic sea ice extent decreasing ¾ Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing ¾ Mid-latitude storm tracks shifting poleward ¾ Glaciers and snow cover decreasing ¾ Greenland / Antarctic glaciers losing mass
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3 Global average temperature Warming is truly global Warming trends since 1979: z Warming everywhere except eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and parts of Antarctica; z Land warming faster than ocean. http://uwnews.org/uweek/uweekarticle.asp?visitsource=uwkmail&articleID=37009 Photo: Norbert Rosing, NGS Pigeon Guillemot, Cepphus columba Photo: T. J. Ulrich, VIREO Western Scrub-Jay, Aphelocoma californica Photo: Brian Small
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4 Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level Average rate of sea level rise: 1961 – 2003: 1.8 mm /yr 1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm /yr 1-6 degrees C increase in Temp. and 0.2-0.6m sea level rise by 2090 without any rapid change in ice flow,. ht p:/ www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf Tuvalu - 11,000 carbon refugees z Temperature trends in the PNW z US Historical Climate Network data z 113 stations with long records z Almost every station shows warming z Regional average: 1.5°F/century Precipitation trends in the PNW z 76 stations with long records z Most stations becoming wetter z Average: +2.9 inches (14%)
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5 Climate change threat to health From warmer temperatures Heat related illness heat stroke Respiratory and cardiac diseases asthma, COPD, CHF, cerebrovascular disease Vector-borne infectious diseases malaria, dengue, yellow fever hantavirus, arboviral encephalitis, Lyme disease, Waterborne and enteric diseases gastroenteritis, diarrhoeal disease, giardia, shigella, E. coli
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This note was uploaded on 05/02/2008 for the course ENVL 111 taught by Professor Unknown during the Fall '07 term at University of Washington.

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Climate Change and - Climate Change and Human Health Climate Change and Human Health Mark Oberle [email protected] http/sphcm.washington.edu

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