ATOC 1050 chapter 4 notes

ATOC 1050 chapter 4 notes - Chapter 4 Forecasting and...

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Chapter 4 – Forecasting and Simulating Severe Weather ATOC 1050 I. Accuracy in forecasting severe weather A. Today’s 4-day forecasts are about as accurate as 2-day forecasts in the 1970s. Why? 1. Numerical models (mathematical equations) 2. Models are adjusted by local forecasters for local conditions. 3. “Bottom line” – models have been improved. a). Better terrain depictions 1
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b). More research into the physical processes of hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. = better models = more accurate forecasts. B. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) 1. Observations (Obs.) (Both surface and upper air) 2. Obs. sent to World Meteorological Centers (WMC) 3. From WMCs, in USA go to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 4. Data is gridded, initialized, processed and output into maps 2
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5. Maps “tweaked” for local conditions 6. Maps made available for public 7. Here’s an example of one of the maps a forecaster uses: NAM (name of model) 300mb Wind, Ht hour: 006 3
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(“Isotach” = lines of equal wind speed) B. Problems with models: 1. Clouds 2. Snow cover 3. Topography 4
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4. Running time of model can’t exceed
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ATOC 1050 chapter 4 notes - Chapter 4 Forecasting and...

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