External_Influences__Handout

External_Influences__Handout - Agenda External influences...

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External Influences 1 Agenda External influences Economic, social and demographic factors Process for understanding external influences
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External Influences 2 Importance of the External Environment Economy Direct impact on HR investments, expenses Social and demographic influences Rapid and uncertain changes have both direct and indirect implications for most HR policies, practices, and programs
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External Influences 3 What’s the picture? Economy Optimistic or pessimistic? BL: Always a matter of degree
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External Influences 4 Optimistic? Stock performance “ better than expected Dow Jones Industrial Average total return performance was 8.8% in 2007 Real GDP slowing, but the private services-producing sector remains “ solid Increased from 3.3% in 2003 to 4.2% in 2006 National unemployment holding “ steady National average was 4.6% in both 2006 and 2007 Personal income (disposable, current dollars adjusted for inflation) is “ on the up-swing Increased 6.2% from 2006 to 2007
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External Influences 5 Optimistic? Ernst and Young 2007 U.S. Lodging Report Projected change from 2006-2007 ADR + 6.0% Occupancy - 0.2% RevPAR + 5.8% Actual change from 2005-2006 ADR + 7.2% Occupancy + 0.3% RevPAR + 7.6% “Overall, the industry has very strong signals for economic growth.”
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External Influences 6 Still optimistic? Recent statements in the press about the U.S. economy and lodging industry “Sky-rocking gas price hurting U.S. economy” “Median family income down for a third year in a row” “1.1 million people added to the poverty ranks” “Cost controls will dictate bottom-line profitability” “Creative solutions should take on more importance” “Help, I just gave away my rooms” “Cash is still king” “Is this place safe?”
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