hw4 - moving average if the data is fairly consistent over...

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Thomas Thai OMS 3001 Asoke Dey March 28, 2007 Homework 4 Problem #1- Page 239 Period Dt 3 Period 3 Period Et 3e-sq 5 Period 5 Period Et 5 et-sq 1 80 - - - - - - 2 95 - - - - - - 3 71 82 -11 121 - - - 4 100 88.67 13.34 177.9 - - - 5 97 89.33 7.67 58.82 88.6 10.4 108.16 6 78 91.67 -13.66 186.6 88.2 -4.2 17.64 7 89 88 1 1 87 2 4 MSE= 109.076 MSE = 43.26 Since the five period has a lower MSE it is the more accurate forecast. Problem #10- Page 240 Period Dt At Ft et MADt Tracking Signal 0 - 18.00 - - 1.00 - 1 20 18.80 18.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2 26 21.68 18.80 7.20 4.60 2.00 3 14 18.61 21.61 -7.68 5.63 0.27
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Problem 3 a. The chart with the lowest MAPE, MAD, and MSD has the best forecast. In this case the chart where alpha equals .1 has the best forecast. It is the chart that is the least off. b. When looking at a seasonal business it may be best to use a short moving average because the other data may be less significant. You may also want to use a shorter
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Unformatted text preview: moving average if the data is fairly consistent over time and does not bounce up and down. Longer moving data moving averages may be necessary for long term planning or if the data appears to be fluxuating quite a bit. This will help your predictions become more accurate. c. When you have a higher alpha, the data is more contingent on previous periods. If there is more of a need for immediate adjustment a higher alpha is recommended. Though seasonal business may require a smaller alpha because there is not a lot of information for them to work with from previous periods. Also if you would like to try to smooth out your set of data a shorter alpha may be required, especially when the data is jumbled and all over the board....
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hw4 - moving average if the data is fairly consistent over...

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