162-M-S-F_(64) - A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services Data are compiled and the state

162-M-S-F_(64) - A major source of revenue in Texas is a...

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A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. D compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. On particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in $millio one particular area of southeast Texas follow: (a) Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA. (b) Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data. (c) Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5. (d) Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part (c) to obtain the final forecasts.
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Data are ne ons) for .
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Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition 4 seasons Data Period Demand Time (x) Average Quarter 1 218 1 Quarter 2 247 2 Quarter 3 243 3 250 250.875 Quarter 4 292 4 251.75 252.625 Quarter 5 225 5 253.5 255 Quarter 6 254 6 256.5 257.375 Quarter 7 255 7 258.25 259.375 Quarter 8 299 8 260.5 261.875 Quarter 9 234 9 263.25 264.375 Quarter 10 265 10 265.5 269 Quarter 11 264 11 272.5 274.5 Quarter 12 327 12 276.5 278.75 Quarter 13 250 13 281 284.125 Quarter 14 283 14 287.25 290.875 Quarter 15 289 15 294.5 Quarter 16 356 16 Average (a) Ratios Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 0.9686098655 1.15586343 0.8823529412 0.9868868383 0.9831325301 1.14176611 0.885106383 0.9851301115 0.9617486339 1.17309417 0.8798944127 0.9729265148 Average 0.8824512456 0.9816478215 0.9711636765 1.1569079 (c, d) Forecasts Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted 17 300.066199179 0.8824512456 264.79379123 Enter past demands in the data area. Do not change the time period nu Enter past demands in the data area. Do not change the time period nu
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18 303.731984174 0.9816478215 298.157840597 19 307.39776917 0.9711636765 298.533547652 20 311.063554165 1.1569079047 359.871884681
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Error analysis
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