# slide1 - Course Materials TEXT Applied Probability and...

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1 Course Materials ! TEXT: ! Applied Probability and Statistics for Engineers by D.C.Montgomery and G.C.Runger (John Wiley & Sons, 1999) ! http://www.lehigh.edu/~eup2/teaching/ie121 ! Announcements ! Lecture notes ! Homeworks and solutions, and more… 2 Course Outline ! Probability Review ! Parameter Estimation ! Hypothesis Testing, Statistical Inference ! Regression and Correlation ! Analysis of Variance ! Non-Parametric Statistics ! Statistical Quality Control

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3 Probability Review ! FOUR Laws of Probability: ! 0 P(A) 1 ! If A,B are m.e., then P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) ! If A,B are indept, then P(A B) = P(A).P(B) ! P(A|B) = P(A B) / P(B). By extension, Bayes’ Law: P(A|B) = P(A).P(B|A) / P(B) 4 Probability Example 1 ! A medical test for malaria is subject to both false-positive and false-negative errors. Given that a person has malaria, the probability the test will fail to reveal it is 0.06. And, given that a person does not have malaria, the chance is 0.09 that the test will suggest the opposite.
5 Probability Example 1… ! Given that Guido has malaria, what is the chance that his test result will reflect it? ! From earlier information, a physician concludes that Guido has a 70% chance of suffering from malaria. Based on this estimate, what is the chance Guido’s test result will indicate malaria? ! Given that his test result indicates malaria, what is the revised probability that Guido suffers from it? 6 Probability Example 2 ! Hermione, who was born on January 24, enters a room with seven other people. Under the assumption of uniformly-distributed birthdays: !

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slide1 - Course Materials TEXT Applied Probability and...

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