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# lec8 - Example Cola Entire cola industry produces two types...

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1 1 Example: Cola ! Entire cola industry produces two types of colas. ! Given: last purchased was cola1, there is 90% chance next purchase is cola1. ! Given: last purchase was cola2, there is 80% chance next purchase is cola2. ! Draw the transition diagram. Photo from http://www.angelfire.com/oh/cocacolaantiques/ 2 Cola continued … ! If Hermione is currently a cola2 purchaser, what is the probability that she will purchase cola1 two purchases from now? ! If Harry is currently a cola1 purchaser, what is the probability that he will purchase cola1 three purchases from now? Photo from the Pepsi Cola Virtual Museum http://www.pepsi100th.com/

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3 n-Step Transition Probabilities ! States = {1,2,…,s} ! 2-Step Transition Probabilities ! By extension, = = s k kj ik ij p p p 1 ) 2 ( ij n ij P n p ] [ ) ( = 4 Cola continued … Currently, 60% of Lehigh students drink cola1, and 40% cola2. What fraction of purchasers will be drinking cola1 three purchases from now? http://www.angelfire.com/oh/cocacolaantiques/
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lec8 - Example Cola Entire cola industry produces two types...

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