PS 30 Notes

PS 30 Notes - Political Science 30 Office Hours:...

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Unformatted text preview: Political Science 30 Office Hours: 801-580-2994 5368 Bunche Thur, 3-4 pm; Fri 11-12 PM 30/09/2007 21:58:00 Thursday, Sept. 27 th , 2007 Whats in common? All models [Media Clips] I. What are models good for? To show, display To test, design To see what if?... Low cost What is really important? To argue, persuade, analogize A model is a purposefully simplified description A model is not reality A model does not try to capture all detail simple as possible, but not too simple.Einstein Models in social science:: Game theory is one of the simplest We shouldnt get a model and the real world confused. Why do people do what they do? Choice Game theory emphasizes choice People do what they do because they choose to. This is not always true, but it is true in many situations II. The simplest model of individual choice There is one person She chooses among a set of alternative Each alternative has a number attached to it (payoff, utility) She chooses the alternative with the highest payoff. If there is a tie, she will choose one of them. Eg. Choose by Pie: o Apple (5) Blueberry (8) Cherry (2) o Blueberry has the highest payoff choose blueberry Eg. Revolt/ Stay at Home o Revolt (5-c) Stay at home (0) o C= cost (getting injured, getting to the site of the revolt) o If c is low (c <5), I revolt. o If c is high (c >5), I dont. Eg. Im really sick and tired of the regime. o Revolt (5-c) Stay at home (-10) o Now even if c is pretty high (c=10), I revolt. The simple model does not assume that people are materialistic or care only about cash. Eg. Valentines Day present from boyfriend. o Book (4) Nice dinner (10) Diamond bracelet (-20) Eg. Valentines Day gift from girlfriend o Book (4) Nice dinner (10) Commitment Rings (-20) Eg. How many children will a person have? o 0 (-5) 1(7) 2(13) 3(9) 4(2) 5(-10) o Decide on 2 kids Do we really act this way? o If we assume the simple model, we assume they do. What exactly are we assuming when we assume the simple model? III. Violations of the simple model Eg. You bought a ticket for $50, and you have an extra $50 in your wallet. At the box office, you may cash in your ticket, or buy a new one for $50. o You go in, and you lost the ticket. Do you buy a new ticket? Eg. Same. But you lost the $50 in your wallet. Would you refund your ticket and go home? 1. People choose the different red choices because of the situations differences--> foolish to buy the ticket twice Lost tick et Buy new tick et Don t See conc ert $0 in wall et No conc ert $50 in wall et Lost $50 Don t Refu nd ticke t See conc ert $0 in wall et No conc ert $50 in wall et Violation: due to framing of the situation, the choices are different Model says that payoff must have # o BUT payoffs are the same; rather, people choose differently given different primary scenarios...
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PS 30 Notes - Political Science 30 Office Hours:...

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