ENGR_183_W08_09 - Population Growth

ENGR_183_W08_09 - Population Growth - Engineering Society...

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Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Engineering & Society: Population Growth & Resources Dr. Gershon Weltman Engineering 183, UCLA SEAS Lecture 9
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  2 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 We Will Consider Explosive Growth of Human Population Human Needs vs. Limited Resources The Attack on our Natural Environment Evolution of Environmental Ethics Roles of Technology and Engineering The Future
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  3 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Humans Are Recent Arrivals A Million Years of Human Growth Earth ~ 6B Years Multicell Biota ~ 600M Years Human Beings ~ 2M Years 1 Billion People ~ 200 years
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  4 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 A Closer Look Last 12,000 Years 200 Million 1 Billion 0 2000 6 Billion
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  5 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Three Technological Eras 2 ~ 6B 1 2 3
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  6 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Population Growth Factors Agricultural Animal Domestication Intensive Crop Production Urbanization Shelter and Transport Water and Energy Sanitation & Health Services Industrialization Food and Medical Products Broad Distribution Economic Growth Biological Hospitalization: Isolation of illness Medical: Cleanliness, Infection Prevention, Treatment Fertility: Sustenance, Health Longevity: Infant Survival, Medical Services, Affluence
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  7 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Fertility Trends 3,4 Fertility rate is average number of child births per woman Above ~2.1 is growth, below ~2.1 is decline At 1990 growth rate 110B in 2100 700B in 2150 Developed nations at 0 or - growth Developing nations also dropping but still + Predictions depend on a large number of assumptions We are Here
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  8 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Interrelationships are Complex 5 2040 9.5B Assumptions Resources = 1990x2 Consumption = 1990
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  9 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Population Predictions 4 Range of prediction 7 to 12B by 2050 5.6 to20.6B by 2100 Low estimate requires global fertility at less than 2 in 15 years Large amount of uncertainty, particularly in out years We are Here
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  10 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Resource Consumption Water Consumption Worldwide Consumption is: High Getting higher Increasing faster than population
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  11 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Present Water Resources Are Limited 8 Water availability: 33% is base flow 23% is accessible 10% is remote 67% is flood runoff We are near limits of presently accessible resources Need to use Base flow from more remote areas Flood runoff resource Other sources, e.g. ocean desalinization
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  12 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Present Land Resources Are Also Limited 7 Land resources: Are insufficient at present yields Sufficiency means: More land under cultivation At least double present yields Land is acquired by deforestation and/or improved irrigation Yields can be increased by biotechnology – but possibly at a cost
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  13 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2006 Energy Consumption 9 Steep increase last 50 years
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