Mayhew%201%20and%20Median%20Voter

Mayhew%201%20and%20Median%20Voter - Congress: The Electoral...

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Unformatted text preview: Congress: The Electoral Th El Connection Connection POLS 4600 Dr. Crespin Crespin Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Hungry People on the Beach!! th Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Hungry People on the Beach!! Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Hungry People on the Beach!! Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Hungry People on the Beach!! Each Cart Gets ½ of the Beach Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Hungry People on the Beach!! Green Moves to the Right Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot New Midpoint Hungry People on the Beach!! Green Gets More Customers by moving moving right Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Old Midpoint Hungry People on the Beach!! White Moves to the Left They Each get ½ again Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Old Midpoint Hungry People on the Beach!! Both move to the center (or median) Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Example, hot dog carts on the beach Example hot Old Midpoint Hungry People on the Beach!! Each end up at the median and share share ½ of the beach Parties as Teams Parties as Teams Don’t Believe it, why are gas stations Don why across across from each other? Applies Applies elsewhere as well • TV News • Time and Newsweek Ti What What about political parties? Parties Parties as Teams Anthony Downs Assume Assume Two parties • Liberal (Democrats) • Conservative (Republicans) Voters Voters Pick the “Team” closest to them • The further away the team is, the more the voter does not like that team • Direction does not matter This This is called a “single peaked preference” Median Voter Median Voter Liberal Voter 1 * Conservative Median Median Voter Median Voter Liberal Voter 1 * Conservative Median Median Voter Median Voter * Is voter 1’s “Ideal” point. She wants the candidate to be at * but will vote for the closest party anyway Liberal Voter 1 * Conservative Median Median Voter Median Voter Instead of One voter, there are lots Instead there of of them Liberal Lots of Voters Median Conservative Median Voter Median Voter Converge Converge to the median • 50/50 tie • Coin flip Liberal Voters Conservative Median Voter Median Voter What What can a third party do? Liberal Voters Conservative Median Voter Median Voter What What can a third party do? Blue Blue and Green Split votes, Red wins • 2000 Election, opposite in 1992 1992 Liberal Voters Conservative Median Voter Median Voter What What about primary elections? • Voters from the candidates party choose who who gets to run in the general election • Voters are generally more “extreme” Liberal Primary Median General Election Median Primary Median Conservative Median Voter Median Voter What What about primary elections? • Voters from the candidates party choose who who gets to run in the general election • Voters are generally more “extreme” Liberal Primary Median General Election Median Primary Median Conservative Mayhew Mayhew First First Premise • Think like an economist, not like a sociologist sociologist Sociologist Sociologist – norms, folkways • “Squishy” Economics Economics – purposive behavior • Rational Choice – chose behavior to maximize goals Mayhew Mayhew What are members’ goals according What goals to to Mayhew? • Reelection, Reelection and Reelection Reelection What What kinds of activity does the goal imply? imply? (First section) How How do they design the Congress to achieve these goals (Second section) (S Why reelection? Why reelection? Fits Fits reality well Spotlight on individuals This This is how democracy is supposed to work (Madison) Electoral Incentives? Electoral Incentives? Easy Easy Question - Is the Congress a place Is where where members wish to stay? • 1971 – 20 percent served 10 terms Hard Hard Question – Is reelection the only goal? goal? • Power within the institution, good public policy, ambition maintaining ambition, maintaining the majority • Mayhew says reelection is the proximate goal proximate goal Alternative View Alternative View Parties Parties are the prime movers in electoral electoral politics • Downs’s Economic Theory of Democracy Economic • Individuals join a “team” or party • Parties bid for favor from the public by offering offering policy • Voters cast votes based on the “expected “expected party differential” Which is correct? Which is correct? Are Are members of Congress part of a team team or are they individuals? • Do they choose, or are they forced, to act act in similar ways? • Can a team have mavericks and be successful? successful? Evidence for Individuals Evidence for Individuals Nomination Nomination system • Direct Primary • Heterogeneous states Resources Resources • Mobilize own resources, $ and labor Lack Lack of a cabinet Answer Answer “No theoretical treatment of the No United United States Congress that posits parties parties as analytic units will go very far.” far.” How to secure reelection How to secure reelection What What influences elections? • Economy, presidential popularity, war Can individual Can individual members influence these things? Solution Solution – ignore them How to secure reelection How to secure reelection All All members are vulnerable at some point point in their careers ½ of variance in outcome is local of • Incumbents can influence their results Members Members are “unbeatable” because they they are good at what they do. How to secure reelection How to secure reelection Need Need to keep resource balance in their their favor How How do they do this? • Advertising • Credit Claiming • Position Taking Advertising Advertising “Any effort to disseminate one’s Any name name among constituents in such a fashion as to create a favorable image image but in messages that having little or no issue content” • Brand name • Experience, knowledge, responsiveness, concern sincerity independence concern, sincerity, independence etc. • Home-style, speeches, congratulations, Homebaby baby books, etc. etc Credit Claiming Credit Claiming “Acting “Acting so as to generate a belief in a Acting relevant relevant political actor that one is personally responsible for causing the government, government, or some unit thereof, to do something that the actor considers desirable” • Individual accomplishment (not party) Credit Claiming Credit Claiming Particularized Particularized benefit • Given out to a specific group, individual or or geographic unit • Given out in an ad hoc fashion Get Get the district their piece of the pie • Shiny construction projects Casework Position Taking Position Taking “Public enunciation of a judgmental Public statement statement on anything likely to be of interest interest to political actors” actors Ex, Ex, War, health care, steroids, etc. Speaker not a doer Speeches, Speeches, articles, tv, books, petitions petitions Winning ideas – hunger, communism Winnin Roll Call vs. Speech Roll Call vs Speech Speech can Speech – can be vague Roll Roll call – recorded vote on the floor of of the chamber • Can’t be vague • Watched by interest groups • Don’t make votes that will hurt you • Don’t have to win, just be on the right side When to act When to act Senators position Senators – position taking/access to media media Machine Machine Cities – credit claiming credit Upper Upper class – position taking Ambitious Ambitious – advertising, position taking Summary Summary Parties Parties acting as teams vs. individual individual actors actors Mayhew individuals Mayhew – individuals are important • Advertising • Credit Claiming • Position Taking ...
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This note was uploaded on 04/16/2009 for the course POLS 4600 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at UGA.

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