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11Econ455: Economic Development in ChinaLecture 21: April 2Growth prospectsSandra PoncetLorch Hall, room 207 Email: [email protected]Office Hours:Mondays 16:30-18:30 & Wednesdays 10:30-122IntroductionImportant to understand how economists and strategists try to project future growth-more difficult than short term forecasts-requirement of an underlying growth modelMost models abstract from shocks (assumed to be random thus havezero mean) and qualitative features-crucial to check the reliability of the predictions-crucial to address in a more qualitative manner the potential threats to the general trend.In any case the only projection that one can make with certainty is that : “In the long run we will all be dead”
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