ECON 455 Lecture 21 Growth prospects

ECON 455 Lecture 21 Growth prospects - Econ455 Economic...

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1 1 Econ455: Economic Development in China Lecture 21: April 2 Growth prospects Sandra Poncet Lorch Hall, room 207 Email: [email protected] Office Hours: Mondays 16:30-18:30 & Wednesdays 10:30-12 2 Introduction Important to understand how economists and strategists try to project future growth -more difficult than short term forecasts -requirement of an underlying growth model Most models abstract from shocks (assumed to be random thus have zero mean) and qualitative features -crucial to check the reliability of the predictions -crucial to address in a more qualitative manner the potential threats to the general trend. In any case the only projection that one can make with certainty is that : “In the long run we will all be dead”
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