4_Demographic Transition

4_Demographic Transition - Social Issues in Contemporary...

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Unformatted text preview: Social Issues in Contemporary China Demographic Changes and Challenges Chronological Order of Major Political Campaigns 1949: founding of New China 1947-52: Land Reform 1952: Collectivization in rural and urban 1951: Three-Against (San Fan): against corruption, waste and bureaucratic 1952: Five-Against (Wu Fan): against different forms of corruption 1958: Against Rightists (Fan You) 1958-1960: Great Leap Forward 1962-1966: Socialist Education Campaign 1966-1976: the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution Demographic Challenges Population growth Rapid fertility decline Population age and gender structure Connected with rapid fertility change Population mobility (for later classes) 1.28E+09 1.27E+09 1.26E+09 1.25E+09 1.24E+09 1.23E+09 1.22E+09 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Population, total Source: http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query/ Main Indicators Indicators Population Midyear population (in millions) Growth rate (percent) Fertility Total fertility rate (births per woman) Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) Births (in thousands) Mortality Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 births) Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) Deaths (in thousands) Source: US Census IDB 2007 1995 2005 2015 2025 1,322 0.6 1.8 13 17,779 73 22 27 7 9,253 1,216 1.0 1.8 17 20,644 70 36 44 7 8,194 1,306 0.6 1.7 13 17,165 72 24 29 7 9,066 1,393 0.6 1.9 14 19,271 75 16 19 7 10,172 1,453 0.2 1.8 11 15,432 77 11 13 8 12,090 Key Points of Demographic Data for China Fertility rate estimates are low, below replacement rate (2.3) It is considered as being a low estimate (Retherford 2005) Growth rates are declining, but projected to remain positive in the near future What are the impacts of demographic change on economic growth? Source: http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/global/chapter4.html "Demographic Transition" The population change over time from high birth rate and high death rate to low birth rate and low death rate, as part of the economic development. The model was based on the demographic change occurred in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years "Demographic Dividend" It occurs when a falling birth rate change the age distribution of the population. A smaller population at young, dependent ages and for relatively more people in the adult age groups--who comprise the productive labor force. The demographic dividend, however, does not last forever. There is a limited window of opportunity. In time, the age distribution changes again, as the large adult population moves into the older, less-productive age brackets and is followed by the smaller cohorts born during the fertility decline. Demographic Dividend: Not Forever From 1953 to 2000, the proportion of children( 014) has dropped from 36.3 to 22.9 percent; working population (15-64) increased from 59.3 to 70.2 percent; aged population (65 and older) increased from 4.4 to 7 percent (Retherford 2005) In time ( 2015 as estimated turning point), the demographic dividend will become a demographic debt Dynamic Population Pyramids for China http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyrs.pl?cty= CH&out=d&ymax=300 Benefit of Demographic Dividend Sustained, rapid economic growth in East Asia demonstrates that developing economies can move swiftly to bridge the income gap with industrial economies. Recent studies indicate these successes can be attributed to a considerable extent to the demographic transition that occurred in East Asian economies (Bloom and Williamson 1997; Williamson 1997). The reduction of high fertility rates creates opportunities for economic growth when accompanied by education, health and labormarket policies. Fang and Wang: pp.34-35 Achievements: Estimated Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Family Planning in Early 70s: Later-Longer-Fewer China initiated its first official national family planning policy, the wan-xi-shao (later-longerfewer) in 1970 Later marriage and childbearing, longer birth intervals and fewer births The lower limits on age at marriage were set as high as the mid20s for female and late 20s for males in parts of China The policy also slowed the pace of childbearing by promoting the two-child norm and recommended at least three years of spacing between births Signaling a dramatic change in the lives of reproductiveaged women, and coincided with a drop in total fertility rates from 5.8 in 1970 to 2.2 in 1980 Family Planning Since the End of 70s: One-Child Policy In 1979, around the beginning of market reform, the Chinese government issued the more restrictive one-child policy, based on continuing concerns regarding the negative impact of population growth on economic development and the projected increasing growth rate due to large cohorts entering childbearing ages in the early 80s Promoting late marriage, late childbearing, and few and healthy children, encouraging one child per family One-Child Policy: Resistance and Reaction Strong resistance and many violations 1984, revised the policy to allow exemptions for having a second child for rural couples under certain circumstances With a birth interval of four years if the first child is a daughter, or disabled, or the couple are both only children Not applied to ethnic minorities In late 1980s, the policy loosened further One-Child Policy: Implementation Incentive and disincentive measures One-child certificate and rewards, such as monthly cash payments, extra work-points till child reach 14 in urban areas, preference in allocation of private plots of hand and land for housing in rural areas These lost significance with rapid economic growth by the mid-90s Mandated contraception practice, sterilization after the second or third birth, and abortion One-Child Policy: Implementation Family planning responsibility system in the early 90s, the head of Party and government at all levels to take full responsibility for implementing the local population plans Those who failed to meet population targets could be subjected to penalties, such as withholding of bonuses, demotions, or dismissal The system helped to ensured both financial and human resources for the implementation One-Child Policy: Changing Focus The social and economic changes that occurred in China and the shift in international family planning programs after the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) People have more freedom to voice their needs for better family planning services and intolerant of the often harsh enforcement At the same time, internationally the shift in the focus of international population programs from more narrowly defined demographic outcomes to more broadly defined improvement in reproductive health and women's need for empowerment One-Child Policy: Changing Focus In China, more emphasis on quality of care, on informed contraceptive choices, and on improvement of women's status New services-oriented approaches: Sex education in schools and communities Increasing retail sales of condoms Addressing unwanted pregnancies among adolescents, especially college students in urban areas Questions about Fertility Decline Rapid shift to below replacement fertility means rapid aging Rapidly declining fertility in the context of strong son preference and availability of technology led to prenatal sex selection, resulting in rising sex ratio at birth How to balance the needs of the nation for slower population growth and individual women's rights for self-determination? Class Project Youth culture: Steven Lee, Jessica Lowe, Stanley Liu Huang Chen, Chris Heinen, OShima Takuto Sarah Walter, Chris Kohler Brain Popek, Huang Wenhua. Kate Gano Mary Goss, Michael Lau Shruti Viradia, Ernest Tchoi, Randy Gao Cultural change/media Family issues Urban life Gender relations Environmental impact Next Class Work on group project Develop project ideas Submit a one-page draft proposal and a preliminary list of a few sources (Hard copy please) Rauch center computer lab, so you have access to computer, and I will be there in case you have any questions ...
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This note was uploaded on 03/09/2008 for the course ASIA/SSP 198 taught by Professor Zhang during the Spring '08 term at Lehigh University .

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