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Homework_6_Forecasting_Solution

# Homework_6_Forecasting_Solution - 311 Operations Management...

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311 Operations Management Fall 2007 Homework 6: Forecasting Due 10/30/2007 1. (20 pts; 10 pts for (a) and (b) each) Determine the following: a) The value of α (exponential smoothing) consistent with N=15 in moving average. 1/ α = (N+1)/2 α = 2/16 = 0.125 b) The value of N consistent with α = 0.2. 1/ α = (N+1)/2 N = 10 – 1 = 9 2. (20 pts.) Problem 18 page 554 in the textbook. In solving this problem use the Holt- Winters model discussed in class. Choose α =0.1, δ =0.2, =0.3 in calculating the smoothed average. Assume that the initial Level Estimator, Trend Estimator, and Seasonal Estimators are, 20500, -500, and 1.15, 1.4, 0.95, 0.5, respectively. Sales Forecast Level Trend Seasonal 1.15 1.4 0.95 0.5 23000 23000 20500 -500 1.15 27000 27300 20000 -500 1.39584 18000 18025.6 19478.6 -504.29 0.94964 9000 9233.38 18971.6 -504.82 0.49658 19000 20591.8 18420.1 -514.16 1.12581 24000 24044.3 17767.5 -541.84 1.39515 15000 15839.9 17222.5 -542.48 0.93597 7960.86 16591.6 -560.17 The sales forecast for the fourth quarter of this year is 7961. Forecast for 1 st Quarter: (5pts.) (20500-500)*1.15=23000 Level estimator after 1 st Quarter: (5pts.) 0.1*(23000 (actual demand of 1 st quarter) / 1.15)+0.9*(20500-500) = 20000 Trend estimator after 1 st Quarter: (5pts.) 0.2*(20000-20500)+0.8*(-500)=-500 Seasonal estimator for Quarter I after 1 st quarter: (5pts.) 0.3*(23000 (actual demand of 1 st quarter)/20000)+0.7*1.15=1.15

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Homework_6_Forecasting_Solution - 311 Operations Management...

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