08l021108_Chapter6

08l021108_Chapter6 - ISE310 Spring 2006 Probability Demand...

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Unformatted text preview: ISE310 Spring 2006 Probability Demand up Probability Demand down Probability staying the same % change 0.5 0.5 0 20% Revenue Cost Probability Price up 0.5 Probability Price down 0.5 Probability staying the same 0 % change 10% Spot Profit Expected 0.25 SpotCost Lease Revenue Discount Rate NPV $(11,413.22) D= 120 p= 1.32 D= 120 p= 1.08 D= 80 p= 1.32 D= 80 p= 1.08 $1.20 $1.00 $1.22 10% Revenue $146,400.00 Spot Cost $158,400.00 PV of Per. 2 Total $129,600.00 0.25 Profit $(12,000.00) $(10,909.09) $(22,909.09) $16,800.00 Expected $(3,000.00) 0.25 0.25 $4,200.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 $97,600.00 $105,600.00 $(8,000.00) $(2,000.00) 0.25 0.25 0.25 $97,600.00 $86,400.00 $11,200.00 $2,800.00 0.25 0.25 NPV= $(11,413.22) $2,000.00 $1,818.18 ($15,231.40) 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 Simulation Approach Change in demand Change in price Demand Price Revenue Cost Profit NPV Per 1 Per 2 Total -20% 20% -10% 10% 80 96 $1.08 $1.19 $97,600.00 $117,120.00 $86,400.00 $114,048.00 Average $4,121.25 $11,200.00 $3,072.00 Std/ dev, $25,909.40 $11,200.00 $2,792.73 $13,992.73 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 $49,265.45 ($7,810.91) $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) $32,843.64 $13,992.73 ($42,370.91) ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $49,265.45 $19,592.73 $13,061.82 ($9,207.27) ($32,247.27) ($32,247.27) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 $32,843.64 $25,629.09 $13,992.73 ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 $13,061.82 $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $32,843.64 ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) ($9,207.27) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $13,061.82 ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($7,810.91) $25,629.09 ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 ($21,498.18) $25,629.09 ($9,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($7,810.91) $32,843.64 ($32,247.27) $20,989.09 $20,989.09 $49,265.45 ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 ($28,247.27) $19,592.73 ($28,247.27) ($42,370.91) $32,843.64 $19,592.73 $25,629.09 ($21,498.18) ($28,247.27) ($21,498.18) ($9,207.27) $20,989.09 ($6,138.18) ($21,498.18) $38,443.64 ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 ($32,247.27) $32,843.64 ($42,370.91) ($5,207.27) $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $20,989.09 ($5,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) $25,629.09 $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) ($7,810.91) $49,265.45 $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $25,629.09 ($28,247.27) ($5,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($42,370.91) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) $49,265.45 $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) $25,629.09 $20,989.09 $13,061.82 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $13,061.82 $20,989.09 ($7,810.91) ($21,498.18) $13,061.82 ($21,498.18) $38,443.64 ($21,498.18) ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) ($21,498.18) ($7,810.91) $13,061.82 $49,265.45 $19,592.73 $13,992.73 $25,629.09 ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) $49,265.45 $38,443.64 ($28,247.27) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) $20,989.09 ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) $19,592.73 $25,629.09 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $38,443.64 $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) ($32,247.27) $20,989.09 $32,843.64 ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 $49,265.45 $25,629.09 $49,265.45 $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $13,992.73 ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($7,810.91) $38,443.64 $49,265.45 ($21,498.18) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) ($28,247.27) $25,629.09 $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 $32,843.64 $49,265.45 $20,989.09 ($21,498.18) ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $13,992.73 $13,061.82 $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) $13,992.73 $13,992.73 ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 $38,443.64 $13,992.73 ($32,247.27) $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) ($5,207.27) $38,443.64 ($7,810.91) ($32,247.27) $13,061.82 $13,992.73 $38,443.64 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 $20,989.09 ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 $19,592.73 $13,992.73 $32,843.64 $19,592.73 $32,843.64 $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) $13,061.82 $38,443.64 $49,265.45 $20,989.09 $38,443.64 $13,061.82 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) $25,629.09 $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) $20,989.09 $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $25,629.09 ($5,207.27) ($7,810.91) $20,989.09 $13,061.82 ($42,370.91) ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 $13,061.82 ($5,207.27) $49,265.45 $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) ($42,370.91) ($28,247.27) $38,443.64 $25,629.09 $38,443.64 ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $20,989.09 $25,629.09 ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 ($6,138.18) ($32,247.27) $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $13,992.73 $13,061.82 $49,265.45 $13,061.82 $32,843.64 $20,989.09 ($42,370.91) ($6,138.18) ($6,138.18) ($5,207.27) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 ($21,498.18) ($21,498.18) $32,843.64 $32,843.64 $32,843.64 ($21,498.18) $25,629.09 ($32,247.27) $38,443.64 $32,843.64 $20,989.09 ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $13,992.73 $20,989.09 $20,989.09 $32,843.64 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) ($6,138.18) ($9,207.27) $20,989.09 ($6,138.18) $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) ($28,247.27) $19,592.73 ($28,247.27) ($32,247.27) ($6,138.18) ($28,247.27) $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 ($21,498.18) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 $25,629.09 ($9,207.27) $38,443.64 ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $32,843.64 $49,265.45 ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) ($6,138.18) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) $32,843.64 ($5,207.27) Bin Frequency -42370.91 64 -39414.9 0 -36458.89 0 -33502.88 0 -30546.86 63 -27590.85 50 -24634.84 0 -21678.83 0 -18722.82 61 -15766.81 0 -12810.79 0 -9854.78 0 -6898.77 120 -3942.76 136 -986.75 0 1969.26 0 4925.28 0 7881.29 0 10837.3 0 13793.31 57 16749.32 78 19705.33 65 22661.35 61 25617.36 0 28573.37 58 31529.38 0 34485.39 68 37441.4 0 40397.42 54 43353.43 0 46309.44 0 More 65 Histogram 160 140 120 100 Frequency 80 60 40 20 0 -3645 8.89 -2463 4.84 -1281 0.79 -986.75 1083 7.3 2266 1.35 3448 5.39 4630 9.44 -4237 0.91 -3054 6.86 -1872 2.82 -6898 .77 4925 .28 1674 9.32 2857 3.37 4039 7.42 Bin 05/12/2009 0.25 D= 100 p= $122,000.00 $1.20 $120,000.00 $2,000.00 $146,400.00 D= 144 p= 1.45 D= 144 p= 1.19 D= 96 p= 1.45 D= 96 p= 1.19 D= 144 p= 1.19 D= 144 p= 0.97 D= 96 p= 1.19 D= 96 p= 0.97 D= 96 p= 1.45 D= 96 p= 1.19 D= 64 p= 1.45 D= 64 p= 1.19 D= 96 p= 1.19 D= 96 p= 0.97 D= 64 p= 1.19 D= 64 p= 0.97 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.25 Revenue $175,680.00 $175,680.00 $117,120.00 $117,120.00 Cost $208,800.00 $171,360.00 $139,200.00 $114,240.00 Profit ($33,120.00) $4,320.00 ($22,080.00) $2,880.00 ($8,280.00) $1,080.00 ($5,520.00) $720.00 ($12,000.00) $2,250.00 0.06 $175,680.00 $139,680.00 $36,000.00 0.13 $117,120.00 $93,120.00 $24,000.00 $3,000.00 0.06 0.13 $78,080.00 $78,080.00 $92,800.00 $76,160.00 ($14,720.00) $1,920.00 ($920.00) $240.00 0.06 $78,080.00 $62,080.00 $16,000.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 1 1 $(18,430.00) ISE310 Spring 2006 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $13,061.82 ($9,207.27) ($21,498.18) $32,843.64 $20,989.09 ($21,498.18) $49,265.45 ($28,247.27) $13,061.82 $13,061.82 $19,592.73 ($7,810.91) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) ($28,247.27) ($42,370.91) ($32,247.27) ($7,810.91) $32,843.64 $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) $38,443.64 ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) ($42,370.91) $13,061.82 ($7,810.91) $25,629.09 ($7,810.91) ($42,370.91) $32,843.64 ($42,370.91) $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) $38,443.64 ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 $25,629.09 $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($7,810.91) ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 $25,629.09 ($7,810.91) $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) $13,992.73 $13,061.82 $13,992.73 ($7,810.91) ($5,207.27) ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $19,592.73 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) ($5,207.27) ($7,810.91) $25,629.09 $49,265.45 $32,843.64 $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 $25,629.09 $32,843.64 $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) ($21,498.18) ($9,207.27) $32,843.64 ($28,247.27) $13,061.82 ($28,247.27) ($32,247.27) $32,843.64 $13,061.82 $38,443.64 ($5,207.27) ($42,370.91) ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) $38,443.64 ($5,207.27) $25,629.09 $13,992.73 $38,443.64 ($32,247.27) $13,061.82 $13,061.82 ($7,810.91) ($42,370.91) $13,061.82 $38,443.64 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $25,629.09 $38,443.64 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($6,138.18) ($42,370.91) ($28,247.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 ($5,207.27) ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) $13,061.82 ($32,247.27) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) $25,629.09 ($5,207.27) ($7,810.91) ($6,138.18) ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 ($28,247.27) ($7,810.91) $13,992.73 $49,265.45 ($7,810.91) $25,629.09 ($6,138.18) ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) ($9,207.27) $13,061.82 $13,061.82 $20,989.09 $13,061.82 $25,629.09 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $25,629.09 ($21,498.18) $13,992.73 $13,061.82 $32,843.64 $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) ($7,810.91) $13,992.73 ($42,370.91) ($42,370.91) ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 $38,443.64 ($28,247.27) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) $32,843.64 $25,629.09 $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($42,370.91) $13,061.82 ($28,247.27) ($32,247.27) $19,592.73 ($21,498.18) $38,443.64 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) $38,443.64 $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) $49,265.45 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 ($7,810.91) ($21,498.18) ($7,810.91) ($32,247.27) $20,989.09 $49,265.45 ($28,247.27) $38,443.64 ($21,498.18) $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) ($42,370.91) ($9,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) $19,592.73 ($9,207.27) ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 $19,592.73 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) $49,265.45 ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) $13,061.82 $20,989.09 ($21,498.18) $13,061.82 ($32,247.27) ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $32,843.64 $25,629.09 $20,989.09 ($32,247.27) ($7,810.91) ($42,370.91) ($21,498.18) $19,592.73 ($9,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($32,247.27) $19,592.73 ($5,207.27) ($6,138.18) ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) $13,061.82 $13,992.73 ($42,370.91) $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $20,989.09 $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) ($32,247.27) $25,629.09 ($6,138.18) ($9,207.27) ($42,370.91) ($5,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 $13,061.82 $38,443.64 ($21,498.18) $25,629.09 $25,629.09 ($42,370.91) $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) ($42,370.91) ($5,207.27) $49,265.45 $38,443.64 ($42,370.91) ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 ($9,207.27) $49,265.45 $13,061.82 ($9,207.27) ($9,207.27) ($7,810.91) ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) ($6,138.18) ($21,498.18) $32,843.64 ($28,247.27) $25,629.09 $38,443.64 $25,629.09 ($5,207.27) $25,629.09 $25,629.09 $38,443.64 ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) $32,843.64 ($42,370.91) $25,629.09 ($32,247.27) ($32,247.27) $13,992.73 $49,265.45 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $32,843.64 ($32,247.27) ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) ($9,207.27) $38,443.64 $25,629.09 $25,629.09 ($32,247.27) ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) $49,265.45 $49,265.45 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 $25,629.09 ($42,370.91) ($7,810.91) ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 $19,592.73 $13,992.73 $13,061.82 ($7,810.91) $19,592.73 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) ($32,247.27) ($6,138.18) $49,265.45 $49,265.45 $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) $32,843.64 $49,265.45 $13,061.82 $13,992.73 $19,592.73 ($6,138.18) ($42,370.91) ($42,370.91) ($42,370.91) ($6,138.18) ($21,498.18) $13,992.73 ($7,810.91) $38,443.64 $38,443.64 $25,629.09 ($7,810.91) $20,989.09 $49,265.45 ($5,207.27) $13,992.73 ($42,370.91) $20,989.09 ($21,498.18) ($7,810.91) ($6,138.18) $25,629.09 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $20,989.09 05/12/2009 ISE310 Spring 2006 ($21,498.18) $38,443.64 $19,592.73 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) ($32,247.27) $32,843.64 $32,843.64 ($32,247.27) $25,629.09 ($32,247.27) $13,992.73 ($5,207.27) $19,592.73 $38,443.64 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $19,592.73 $25,629.09 $20,989.09 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $32,843.64 $19,592.73 $25,629.09 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $19,592.73 ($5,207.27) $49,265.45 $13,992.73 $19,592.73 $38,443.64 ($42,370.91) $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 $13,992.73 $32,843.64 $13,061.82 ($28,247.27) ($6,138.18) $38,443.64 ($9,207.27) ($42,370.91) ($7,810.91) ($7,810.91) $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $32,843.64 $38,443.64 ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) ($7,810.91) $19,592.73 $20,989.09 ($32,247.27) $13,992.73 ($32,247.27) ($7,810.91) ($5,207.27) $38,443.64 ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) ($6,138.18) $25,629.09 ($6,138.18) ($32,247.27) $20,989.09 $32,843.64 $38,443.64 $32,843.64 ($32,247.27) ($42,370.91) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 $32,843.64 ($21,498.18) ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) $13,061.82 ($5,207.27) ($21,498.18) ($6,138.18) ($32,247.27) ($28,247.27) $13,992.73 ($6,138.18) ($6,138.18) ($9,207.27) $38,443.64 $32,843.64 $32,843.64 ($42,370.91) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 $32,843.64 $38,443.64 ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $32,843.64 $20,989.09 $20,989.09 ($5,207.27) ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) $25,629.09 ($21,498.18) $49,265.45 $25,629.09 $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) $20,989.09 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 $13,992.73 $20,989.09 $38,443.64 ($32,247.27) $25,629.09 $49,265.45 $49,265.45 ($32,247.27) $13,061.82 $13,061.82 ($6,138.18) ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 ($28,247.27) $19,592.73 $20,989.09 $20,989.09 $20,989.09 ($32,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $25,629.09 ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 ($32,247.27) ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) ($7,810.91) $20,989.09 $13,061.82 ($21,498.18) ($32,247.27) $19,592.73 ($42,370.91) ($6,138.18) $13,061.82 $32,843.64 $32,843.64 $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $13,992.73 $20,989.09 $13,992.73 ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) ($28,247.27) ($7,810.91) $49,265.45 ($9,207.27) ($5,207.27) $49,265.45 ($42,370.91) ($9,207.27) $20,989.09 $32,843.64 $19,592.73 $49,265.45 $13,992.73 $20,989.09 ($28,247.27) $13,992.73 $32,843.64 ($9,207.27) $13,992.73 ($21,498.18) $13,992.73 ($32,247.27) ($21,498.18) ($5,207.27) $19,592.73 $32,843.64 $38,443.64 $19,592.73 $25,629.09 ($21,498.18) $13,992.73 $32,843.64 ($6,138.18) $19,592.73 $38,443.64 $25,629.09 $20,989.09 ($7,810.91) ($9,207.27) $49,265.45 ($28,247.27) ($21,498.18) ($42,370.91) $19,592.73 $13,061.82 $32,843.64 $32,843.64 $49,265.45 $20,989.09 $49,265.45 $13,992.73 ($7,810.91) ($32,247.27) ($32,247.27) ($5,207.27) $32,843.64 $20,989.09 ($42,370.91) ($7,810.91) ($28,247.27) ($9,207.27) 05/12/2009 ...
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