{[ promptMessage ]}

Bookmark it

{[ promptMessage ]}

08l021108_Chapter6

# 08l021108_Chapter6 - ISE310 Spring 2006 Probability Demand...

This preview shows pages 1–2. Sign up to view the full content.

ISE310 Spring 2006 05/12/2009 Probability Demand up 0.5 Probability Price up 0.5 SpotCost \$1.20 Probability Demand down 0.5 Probability Price down 0.5 Lease \$1.00 Probability staying the same 0 Probability staying the same 0 Revenue \$1.22 % change 20% % change 10% Discount Rate 10% Revenue Cost Profit Spot NPV \$(11,413.22) Spot 0.25 D=144 0.06 0.06 \$175,680.00 \$208,800.00 (\$33,120.00) (\$8,280.00) Revenue Cost Profit Expected Revenue Cost Profit Expected p=1.45 0.25 D=120 \$146,400.00 \$158,400.00 \$(12,000.00) \$(3,000.00) 0.25 D=144 0.06 0.13 \$175,680.00 \$171,360.00 \$4,320.00 \$1,080.00 p=1.32 PV of Per. 2 \$(10,909.09) p=1.19 Total \$(22,909.09) 0.25 D=96 0.06 0.13 \$117,120.00 \$139,200.00 (\$22,080.00) (\$5,520.00) p=1.45 0.25 D=120 \$146,400.00 \$129,600.00 \$16,800.00 \$4,200.00 0.25 D=96 0.06 0.25 \$117,120.00 \$114,240.00 \$2,880.00 \$720.00 D=100 \$122,000.00 \$120,000.00 \$2,000.00 p=1.08 p=1.19 (\$12,000.00) p= \$1.20 0.25 D=144 0.06 p=1.19 0.25 D=80 \$97,600.00 \$105,600.00 \$(8,000.00) \$(2,000.00) 0.25 D=144 0.06 0.06 \$175,680.00 \$139,680.00 \$36,000.00 \$2,250.00 p=1.32 p=0.97 0.25 D=96 0.06 p=1.19 0.25 D=80 \$97,600.00 \$86,400.00 \$11,200.00 \$2,800.00 0.25 D=96 0.06 0.13 \$117,120.00 \$93,120.00 \$24,000.00 \$3,000.00 p=1.08 p=0.97 0.25 D=96 0.06 NPV= \$(11,413.22) 1.00 p=1.45 \$2,000.00 0.25 D=96 0.06 \$1,818.18 p=1.19 (\$15,231.40) 0.25 D=64 0.06 0.06 \$78,080.00 \$92,800.00 (\$14,720.00) (\$920.00) p=1.45 0.25 D=64 0.06 0.13 \$78,080.00 \$76,160.00 \$1,920.00 \$240.00 Simulation Approach Per 1 Per 2 Total p=1.19 Change in demand -20% 20% 0.25 D=96 0.06 Change in price -10% 10% p=1.19 Demand 80 96 0.25 D=96 0.06 Price \$1.08 \$1.19 p=0.97 Revenue \$97,600.00 \$117,120.00 0.25 D=64 0.06 Cost \$86,400.00 \$114,048.00 Average \$4,121.25 p=1.19 Profit \$11,200.00 \$3,072.00 Std/ dev, \$25,909.40 0.25 D=64 0.06 0.06 \$78,080.00 \$62,080.00 \$16,000.00 \$1,000.00 NPV \$11,200.00 \$2,792.73 \$13,992.73 \$49,265.45 Bin Frequency p=0.97 (\$7,810.91) -42370.91 64 \$19,592.73 -39414.9 0 \$2,000.00 1 1 \$(18,430.00) (\$6,138.18) -36458.89 0 \$20,989.09 -33502.88 0 (\$9,207.27) -30546.86 63 (\$5,207.27) -27590.85 50 (\$5,207.27) -24634.84 0 (\$21,498.18) -21678.83 0 \$32,843.64 -18722.82 61 \$13,992.73 -15766.81 0 (\$42,370.91) -12810.79 0 (\$32,247.27) -9854.78 0 (\$9,207.27) -6898.77 120 (\$5,207.27) -3942.76 136 \$49,265.45 -986.75 0 \$19,592.73 1969.26

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}