Exercise 1 - Megan Lawless Lecture 3 Section 3 1 b Tossing...

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Megan Lawless Lecture 3, Section 3 August 30, 2007 1. b) Tossing 100 coins 50 times, the number of coins that showed up heads was always in between 42 and 64. It was usually about 48-54, which is what someone would expect with 100 fair coins being tossed. 2. a) A Bernoulli trial is one question, each with a probability of success of .25 (one answer out of four is correct). There are 7 Bernoulli trials per experiment because there are 7 questions on the test. b) It is most likely that someone will get 1 question out of seven correct. c) Someone should expect to get about 1 question correct out of 7 if they guess randomly. It is somewhat likely that someone will get 2 or 3, and even less likely that someone will
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Megan Lawless Lecture 3, Section 3 August 30, 2007 get 0 or 4. It is very unlikely that anyone who guesses on 7 questions will get 6 questions correct, and nearly impossible to get all 7 correct.
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Unformatted text preview: This graph is similar to the first one we did; however, the first graph differed slightly because is was equally likely to be above the average number than below it. In this graph, with 1 being about average, it is relatively likely to get a 2 or 3, but very unlikely to get a 5 or 6. The first graph has more of a normal parabolic shape, while this graph steeply increases and then declines in probability. It is much more likely to do worse than 3 correct than to get a 3 or 4. There is a small chance (about 1 in 4) of getting a respectable grade (3 or 4) by guessing. Personally, I would rather study. d) With a 50 question test, the graph above shows that a score between 10 and 15 right would be the average for someone who guesses on all of them. It seems to be nearly impossible to get more than half right, yet it is still likely to get very few correct....
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  • Spring '08
  • Probability theory, Coin flipping, Megan Lawless

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