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Unformatted text preview: An Overview of Atmospheric Chemistry Research at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder Greg Frost Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA ESRL, Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder Earth System Research Laboratory Who We Are NOAA's Mission Line Offices Oceanic & Atmospheric Research National Marine Fisheries Service Deputy Assistant Administrator Laboratories & Coop. Institutes Director, Earth Systems Research Laboratory Alexander E. MacDonald Oceanic & Atmospheric Research Assistant Administrator for Oceanic & Atmospheric Research Richard W. Spinrad Air Resources Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory National Weather Service Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Environmental Satellite, Data & Information Service Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory National Severe Storms Laboratory National Ocean Service Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESRL Overview and Mission ~600 staff $83.4M (FY07) ESRL Directorate and centralized support David Skaggs Research Center Global Monitoring Division Physical Sciences Division Chemical Sciences Division Global Systems Division Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) ESRL's one-word rationale: "integration" (i.e., better..., more..., broader...) An integrated research focus to support NOAA's "whole-Earth" operational and information-service mission. Mission "To observe and understand the Earth system and to develop products through a commitment to research that will advance NOAA's environmental information and service on global-to-local scales." Earth System Research Laboratory Our Organization: A Bit of History Period of this review: 2004 - present Over this time, we have evolved ! FY 2004-2005 Boulder Laboratories Aeronomy Lab Climate Diagnostics Center Forecast Systems Lab Surface Radiation Environmental Climate Monitoring Branch - Air Technology Lab & Diagnostics Lab Resources Lab FY 2006-Present ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Global Monitoring Division Physical Sciences Division Global Systems Division Earth System Research Laboratory Resources - People (our most valuable resource ) Chemical Sciences Division 134 119 118 125 102 105 106 Personnel Trends Global Monitoring Division 111 Other Joint Institutes Federal Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Combined 240 221 223 236 Messages: Small shifts at 2006 are due to reorganization, other factors ~Steady totals over the last 4 years Our Joint Institute partnerships are thriving (over 50% of our staff are our JI colleagues) Fiscal Year Earth System Research Laboratory Resources - People (continued) Years Since Ph.D. Chemical Sciences Division Global Monitoring Division Federal Other Combined Messages: A strong influx of new Ph.D.'s Our federal staff is aging and that is a problem that we need to address "Drivers" of our Research Public Laws Global Change Research Act of 1990 Clean Air Act 1990 Global Climate Protection Act of 1990 Energy Policy Act of 2002 Oceans Act 2000 International Agreements U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (and subsequent amendments) Group on Earth Observations (GEOSS,GCOS) North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Interagency Programs and Agreements Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Memoranda of Understanding between NOAA and EPA ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado Types of Products from ESRL Research Publications: > 740 publications in refereed literature between 2004 and 2007. Assessments IPCC Assessment Reports Ozone Assessments CCSP Assessments Air Quality Assessments Data products and services On line at ESRL US Data Centers World Data Centers Model Data Evaluation Archives International Initiatives, Programs, Bulletins ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado Data sets & Visual displays Emission Maps Globalview IADV NOAA/ESRL On-line products ODGI Ozone Hole Visualization 1 .4 1 .2 1 .0 0 .8 Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) Global trends AGGI N O A A A n n u a l G re e n h o u s e G a s In d e x 3 .0 CO2 CH4 Carbon Tracker 2 .5 Radiative Forcing (W m ) -2 N 2O CFC12 CFC11 1 0 M in o r 2 .0 1 .5 0 .6 1 .0 0 .4 0 .2 0 .0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 .5 0 .0 ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado Assessments Our contributions to Assessments are the highest level product for our research: Provide evaluations and syntheses of the most recent research Operate at the interface of science and policy, providing policy-relevant information IPCC Assessments Inform nations through UNFCCC on climate and climate change mitigation o Significant vehicles for educating global society on climate change Ozone Assessments Inform nations through the Vienna Convention on the Ozone layer o Resulted in significant amendments to the Montreal Protocol o Led to acceleration of production phaseouts, most recently HCFCs CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Reports Provide US policy-makers with climate-relevant information January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review Many Changes Signal A Warming World Rising atmospheric temperature And...... Atmospheric water vapor increasing Warming is Unequivocal Arctic sea ice extent Rising sea level Glaciers retreating decreasing Extreme temperatures increasing ............. Reduction in NH snow cover Are Humans Responsible? IPCC (1995): "Balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence" IPCC (2001): "Most of warming of past 50 years likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities" IPCC (2007): "Most of warming very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases" Continental Attribution Continental scale warming is likely (2 out of 3 odds) due to increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases Future: More regional -> more info on forcings in space and time essential Our Primary Foci Climate, Stratospheric Ozone, and Regional Air Quality Climate Its changes, variability, impacts, and "coping" with climate change Stratospheric Ozone Its changes, the "accountability phase" of the Montreal Protocol, and connection to climate Regional Air Quality Its changes (O3 & PM), policy information for Federal decision and regions/state/local management strategies All of relevance to society Interrelated 3 Atmospheric Composition: A Crucial Component of the Earth System Emissions Impacts Atmospheric Composition Global Knobs: Global Regional Local Accounting for the past knowing the present state Predicting and projecting the future Making choices: Which "knob" to turn? One better than the other? Our forte: Quantify and understand processes Represent in "predictive" models or transfer information to global models Assess impacts of atmospheric composition and its changes 4 Atmospheric Composition: Understanding and Quantifying Processes and Properties! Emissions: Sources Precursors Atmospheric composition Properties/ Processes Climate Forcing, UV, T & circulation changes, Health effects Processes Chemistry, other factors (including policy) Climate, Strat. O3 Air Quality Emissions Impacts Mitigation Adaptation ESSENTIAL for policy Mitigation, adaptation, etc. Influence of external factors Process studies multiple ways (& in combination); time and space scale issues Intensive campaigns Long-term monitoring 6 Building from the "fundamentals" ESRL Efforts and the Relation To Others We are one cog a very important cog in a large wheel! Other Models NOAA Model(s) Other Information Products Sources Precursors Processes Abundance composition Properties/ Processes Climate Forcing, UV, T & circulation changes, Health effects Chemistry, other influences (including policy) Climate O3 AQ Assessments (e.g., IPCC, WMO/UNEP O3, Regional AQ) Collaborations with other agencies and institutions in almost each step: - Co-planning and co-execution of field missions - Interactions in planning programs, priorities, and hand offs 7 - Work together in taking science to information (e.g., Assessments, ...) Atmospheric Composition: Dealing with Short- and Long-Lived Chemicals 10 yrs 100 yrs Micro Scale Urban or Local Scale Regional or Mesoscale Synoptic or Global Scale Long-Lived CFC's Species N2O CH4 CH3CCl3 CH3Br Short-Lived Species 1 day CO Aerosols Inter -Hemispheric Mixing Time Intra -Hemispheric Mixing Time Boundary Layer Mixing Time Long-Lived gases are well-mixed and do not vary rapidly in time (globally). Short-Lived species are not well mixed; they are highly variable in space and time. Ozone and most of aerosols have added complexity they are made in the atmosphere. TIME SCALE 1yr 100s Very ShortLived Species CH3O2 HO2 NO3 OH 0.001 0.01 H2O2 NOx DMS C3H6 C5H8 SO2 Trop O3 1s 1hr 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10,000 SPATIAL SCALE, km Concentrations of shorter-lived gases and aerosols need to be calculated. All concentrations have to be calculated for predictions! 5 NOAA ESRL Baseline Observatories ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado NOAA/ESRL Observing Networks Carbon Cycle Halocarbons and Ozone Aerosols, Radiation ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado NOAA NASA DC-8 Private Light Aircraft NOAA P3 UNOLS NASA WB-57 Int'l DOE Cessna DOE G-1 Aircraft Cooperative sampling sites Sampling Platforms Ships Tall Towers Surface ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado One atmosphere: Three Interrelated Issues Climate Strat. O3 AQ Many forcing agents are "pollutants." Each issue impacts other two. Processes involved in these issues are same or similar. But, I will first discuss these separately! 8 Regional Air Quality NOx + CO/VOCs + CO/VOCs O3 PMsecondary (SO4, NO3, SOA) NOx + SO2 + PMprimary power plants inflow NOx + VOCs + SOx + PM + NOx + CO/VOCs + PMprimary cities (cars & trucks) VOCs forests outflow Driven by health and welfare issues (urban & regional). Focused on ozone and aerosols in lower troposphere / mixed layer NH3 & others Courtesy: James Meagher Key Questions: What are the abundances and sources of O3 and aerosols? What are the processes that control their abundances? o Emissions of precursors (and primary aerosols) o Chemical processes o Small-scale meteorological processes o Transport of ozone, aerosols, precursors, etc. Goals: Improved process-based "predictive" capability Providing information needed for the decision makers in states and regions Contributing to development of "chemical weather" forecasting 9 NOAA's Role In Air Quality Research Why Air Quality? A Serious National Problem Principal Pollutants: O3 and PM. More than half the U.S. population lives in areas that do not meet the health-based air quality standards. Tens of thousands of deaths each year are are attributed to exposure to poor air quality. Estimated health costs are $14 - $55 billion annually Reduced crop yields cost an additional $3-$5 billion of losses each year. Counties Designated as NAAQS "Nonattainment" 3 Pollutants 2 Pollutants 1 Pollutants Why NOAA? High quality policy relevant research is critically needed now. Our research builds on NOAA's unique scientific competence and resources. NOAA Management An "Independent Broker" of scientific information. Managed Understanding Air Quality in the US: A Challenge ESRL Regional Air Quality Research Strategy: A series of regional field measurements supported by laboratory studies and model analysis to help supply the Nation's air quality information needs. Regional Selection Criteria Severity of the AQ problem Emission mix Meteorology / topography Effect of regional transport Schedule Ongoing Local Studies East Texas 2000, 2006 ITCT 2002 Southeast 1995, 1999 New England 1993, 2002, 2004 Every two years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, etc.) Repeat as needed (verity results, check emission changes) Capabilities Required to Undertake Regional Research Top-down methods for inventory assessment Emission ratios derived from field data "snapshots" agree with continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS) at power plants 600 550 60 50 W.A. Parish power plant plume 1-Hz aircraft data NOx CO2 SO2 300 250 60 50 300 slope = 1.9 250 NOx, ppbv CO2, ppmv NOx, ppbv SO2, ppbv SO2, ppbv 40 30 20 10 0 2:36:30 AM 10/12/06 2:37:00 AM 200 150 100 50 0 40 30 20 10 0 400 440 480 520 200 150 100 500 450 400 350 slope = 0.24 50 0 2:37:30 AM Time, GMT CO2, ppmv Method is accurate: within 25% of inventory values from CEMS - apply top-down approach to wider variety of sources with reasonable confidence W.A. Parish emission estimates compared NOx/CO2 0.24 0.03 0.20 SO2/CO2 1.9 0.3 1.9 observed slope Top-down data necessary to quantify CEMS inventory atmospheric concentration changes resulting from emissions control strategies N2O5 Uptake & Aerosol Composition Ohio New York Changes: Sulfate Loading Aerosol Organic Fraction Aerosol Acidity Ohio New York PiLS Aerosol Composition R. Weber Ammonium Bisulfate Ammonium Sulfate Relative Humidity = 0.02 < 10-3 Nocturnal NOx lifetime strongly correlated to the aerosol loading, particularly sulfate Halogen Activation in Polluted Marine Environments N2O5 Na+ Na+ Cl - NO2+ + NO3NO2+ + H2O Cl- HNO3 Na+ Cl- NO2 + + ClNa + ClCl- ClNO2 Nitryl Chloride Na+ Behnke et al., JGR 1997 (ClNO2) 1, [Cl-] 1 M 8/2/2002 Photo: Dan Welsh-Bon NEAQS 2002 Simple calculation: Modest (50 pptv integrated) halogen activation even for strong N2O5 production Growth of WSOC in Urban Plumes During ICARTT de Gouw et al. [JGR accepted] Large increase of WSOC in urban plumes, consistent between NEAQS 2002 and ICARTT SOA > POA after only few hours of processing Climate: Climate Forcing (RF) and Information for Feedbacks 10 Globally averaged TOA forcing shown Local forcing highly variable at the surface, in the atmosphere, and large variation in space and time Variability and uncertainty comes from shorter-lived species. Climate: Climate Forcing (RF) and Information for Feedbacks CO2 Non-CO2 GHGs (including Trop O3) Aerosols Globally averaged TOA forcing shown Local forcing highly variable at the surface in the atmosphere large variation in space and time Variability and uncertainty comes from shorter-lived species. Key Questions What are the human-induced forcing on the climate system? (past, now, and future) What are the feedbacks? Goals Quantification of the radiative forcing agents Process understanding for forcing and feedbacks 11 Climate Forcing: Carbon Dioxide Courtesy: Pieter Tans Currently the largest forcing agent, and growing! Growth is mostly due to human-influenced emissions (with variations due to other factors). We know the forcing by CO2 to date accurately... True for the future? Key Questions: What will be the forcing by CO2 in the future? Emissions Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Cumulative Emitted CO2 Observed CO2 Goal: Continued measurements and understanding of carbon cycle processes to predict/project future concentrations. 12 Climate Forcing: Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Key Questions (CH4, N2O, halocarbons...): What are the abundances and sources of long-lived non-CO2 greenhouse gases? What are the processes that control their abundances? Goals: Develop prediction capabilities. Elucidate the impact on the atmosphere. Courtesy: James Elkins RH OH H 2O R M RO2 HO 2 O2 NO OH NO2 h R OOH O Removal Key Questions (tropospheric O3): How can we quantify tropospheric O3 (now and in the future) for forcing and feedbacks? What are the sources? In the lower troposphere? In the upper troposphere? What are the sinks? M 13 NO O3 Goal: Quantification of precursors and processes to derive concentrations and impacts on atm. Flask CO2 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1980 5000 Flask CH4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Flask CO H2 1987 1988 1989 1990 Flask 13CO2 (CU) Tans et al. (1990) 1990 1991 1992 1993 Flask N2O SF6 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Network expansion CAR profile CO2 at ITN tower 15,000 Flask 13CH4 (CU) Flask 14CO2 (CU) 2000 2001 2002 2003 PFP halocarbon 2004 2005 2006 2007 20,000 2008 2009 2010 Flask VOC (CU) 10,000 Flask D-CH4 (CU) CO2 Growth Rate Globally Averaged CH4 Little increase since 1999. Initially, looked like approach to steady state Growth rate continues to decrease. Will this continue? 2b. Quality: Halocarbons (CFCs, halons, solvents) in situ data from G. Dutton 4 2c. Quality of Measurement: CO CO reacts quickly with tropospheric OH. CO has a short atmospheric lifetime of ~2 months. Source from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass. Use to calculate emissions of other non-CO2 gases. Large interhemispheric gradient. No significant trend since 1991. El Nio events created droughts in Asia and more forest fires in 1998 and 2004. 5 Update of Novelli et al., [2003], JGR Ozone profiles and surface ozone at Trinidad Head, California illustrating the variability in time and altitude Stratospheric Ozone Tracer at 8.5 km on July 22, 2004 (IONS 04) Stratospheric ozone tracer comes from the FLEXPART model developed by Andres Stohl. It is a Lagrangian, quantitative particle dispersion model that includes full turbulence and convection parameterizations. IMPORTANCE: Although not an anthropogenic source, climate change could influence input from the stratosphere. It is also an important test of model performance. 8.5 km FLEXPART analysis by Owen Cooper Influence of lightning on upper trop. O3 over N. America Average tropospheric ozone profile (top) and with stratospheric ozone removed at IONS 06 sites in Aug. 2006 Contours of ozone mixing ratio at 10-11 km Modeling study predicted summer upper trop. ozone maximum over central U.S. Li, Q., et al. (2005), J. Geophys. Res., 110, D10301, doi:10.1029/2004JD005039. Cooper, O., et al. (2006), J. Geophys. Res., 111, doi:10.1029/2006JD007306. Analysis of IONS 04 sonde data suggested that this maximum could have a significant contribution from lightning generated NOX. Cooper et al. (2007), J. Geophys. Res. Cooper O., et al. (2007), J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23304, doi:10.1029/2007JD008710. IONS 06 strengthened the connection with lightning, showed the strength and persistence of the maximum, Strong year to year variation. Analysis of Measurement Quality From SPARC H2O Assessment (2000) Significant differences exist between state of the art instruments; these differences can impact interpretations. From Pre-AVE, Winter 2004 From TC-4, Summer 2007 Recent Tropical Water Vapor Changes, Inferences About Mechanisms Rosenlof and Reid, Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: The sea-surface connection, paper in press at JGR, #2007JD009109. Combination of satellite H2O, SST, and temperatures from the NCEP reanalysis gives insight into dynamical processes. Ongoing Analysis: Tropical storm impact on the water vapor budget of the upper troposphere. in May-Oct, TCs are a comparable source to the Asian monsoon. Composite for Intense (catagory 3-5) Cyclones in the Western Pacific Basin 200 mb Comparing Tropical UT H2O Source Regions for 150-300 hPa NH hurricane season SH hurricane season Using AIRS data see Ray and Rosenlof, JGR, 2007 Climate: Aerosols Aerosols scatter and absorb incoming radiation (a daytime process)- there is a large uncertainty in the quantification of this process. Key Questions: What are the concentrations, trends, and properties of aerosols? What is the relation between emissions and aerosol's abundance/properties? Aerosols also modify clouds: amounts, properties and distribution (&vice-versa). The Indirect Effects Highly uncertain, but key for predictions and impacts Key Question: Can we quantify a few important effects? Mass Fraction of Submicron Particles 0.0 Southern Ocean (Marine) Europe (Polluted) Africa (Biomass burning) India (Pollution) Asia (Dust) NE United States (Pollution) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NH4 nssSO4 NO3 Sea salt POM EC nssK Dust H2O Aerosols come in multiple flavors: Composition, size, physical state, surface properties, etc. Key Question: Can we develop the capability to predict these parameters? Radiative Forcing, Wm-2 +2 +2 0 0 -2 -2 14 Goal: Characterize influence of aerosol and aerosol - cloud interactions (radiation and precipitation) on climate to a "usable" level now and enable future predictions. After Schwartz Mauna Loa Observatory Aerosol Lidar (one of the longest records in existence) 10-1 Integrated Aerosol Backscatter (sr ) -1 A Primary Site of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) 10-2 10-3 10-4 Fuego 10-5 1970 1975 1980 El Chichn 1985 1990 Pinatubo 1995 2000 2005 2010 ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado Variations in Aerosol Amount and Type Extinction (Mm-1) 1 Mm-1 = 1 mm2 m-3, extinction cross-section per cubic meter of air log scale! AMOUNT Single scattering albedo Percentiles 95 75 50 25 5 TYPE A rich data set for evaluating chemical transport models J. Ogren 2/1/08 Climatology of Hygroscopic Growth J. Ogren 2/1/08 Climate models must represent water uptake by aerosols to calculate radiative forcing. Measurements from ESRL long-term network allow evaluation of model performance for a wide range of conditions. Work in ESRL Work in progress IPCC Feedbacks aerosol pumping by clouds Radiative forcing nucleation Ice processes aerosol effects on physics Aqueous chemistry (sulfate, organic) IPCC Forcing drizzle water vapor uptake dynamics precipitation Land surface processes aerosol effects on sfc radiation CCN measurements Higher-order Indirect Effects contd.. More aerosol more drops less coalescence less rain higher LWP higher cloud fraction longer lifetime ? ? ? A non monotonic response... Cloud fraction Precipitation suppression increases cloud fraction Enhanced evaporation due to smaller drops decreases cloud fraction Modeling of warm clouds Xue, Feingold, Stevens, 2008 Aerosol concentration, cm-3 - Microphysical feedbacks complicate the simple linear response - Rain, LWP, cloud fraction and lifetime responses are not necessarily connected LWP dLWP/dt Aerosol Effects on Cloud Morphology via Drizzle low aerosol, drizzle high aerosol, no drizzle Closed-cell Albedo ~ 0.6 (non-precipitating) Time t ~ 60 min Onset of drizzle results in transition to open-cell convection Open-cell Albedo ~ 0.2 (precipitating) Garay et al. 2004, MISR Xue, Feingold, Stevens 2008 6 y - km -6 x - km 6 -6 x - km Stratospheric Ozone Key Questions: Stratospheric O3 abundances: What are the past and current levels? (column, vertical profile, global, etc.) Stratospheric O3 changes: What are the causes? Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS): How much? From what source(s)? What does the future hold? What are the chemical and transport processes? Global O3 trends EESC trends in time and vertical Goal: Identify, understand, and quantify the processes that cause stratospheric ozone depletion. 15 Stratospheric Ozone, continued The "accountability" phase of Montreal Protocol and stratospheric O3: 10 6 4 Key Questions: Substitutes for ODSs- how good are they? 2 1 6 4 2 0.1 6 4 2 Acceptability Standard 0.01 Recovery of O3 layer- When? Where will it observed? By how much? How does climate change influence recovery? Connections to other Earth System issues? Other benefits of the Montreal Protocol? Goal: "Shepherd" the O3 layer through the accountability phase. 16 Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometers The Original Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometer - 1924 Dobson Ozone Trends Harris, J.M., S.J. Oltmans, P.P. Tans, R.D. Evans, and D.L. Quincy, Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 4535, 2001 (updated) ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado SOUTH POLE STATION OZONESONDES: 450 TOTAL COLUMN OZONE 400 2006 2007 No Evidence for Lessening of Ozone Hole Severity 2006 and 2007 again demonstrated the dynamic interannual variability in Antarctic ozone depletion. Enhanced wave activity in October 2007 resulted in upper vortex disturbances and increased temperatures with enhanced ozone, while 2006 remained cold with low ozone throughout the September November period. Total Ozone (Dobso n Unit 350 AVG 1986-2006 Stnd Dev Range MAX MIN 2006 Total Ozone 2007 Total Ozone 300 250 200 150 100 50 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY SOUTH POLE STATION: JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV TEMPERATURE 20-24 km average ( C ) DEC -20 -30 2006 2007 -40 TEMPERATURE ( C -50 Stand Dev Range AVG 1986-2006 Minimum Maximum 2006 Temp 20-24 KM layer 2007 Temp 20-24 km layer -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ESRL Atmospheric Chemistry Review January 2931, 2008 ~ Boulder, Colorado Is the Montreal Protocol working? Most ODSs are decreasing, replacements (HCFCs) are increasing 540 ppt 515 490 ppt 10 CH3Br CH3 Br CFC-12 CFC-12 20 HCFCHCFC141b 141b 15 HCFC-142b HCFC142b 270 ppt 260 250 240 200 HCFC-22 HCFC-22 CFC-11 CFC-11 5 H-1211 H-1211 H-1301 H-1301 0 HFC-152a HFC-152a 1990 CH3 CCl CH3CCl3 3 CCl4 CCl 1995 2000 2005 160 120 ppt 80 4 CFC-113 CFC-113 40 HFC-134a HFC-134a 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Is the Montreal Protocol working? Most ODSs are decreasing, replacements (HCFCs) are increasing 540 ppt 515 490 20 Summarizing trends for all ODSs: CFC-12 CFC-12 Effective Equivalent Chlorine (EECl) 15 3.2 3.2 ppt 10 HCFCHCFC141b 141b HCFC142b HCFC-142b Global EECl CH3Br CH3 Br Global EECl [Cl + (Br*60)]* [Cl + (Br*60)]* Down over Down H-1211 H-1211 10% from 11% from peak!! HFC-152a H-1301peak!!HFC-152a H-1301 1995 2000 2005 270 ppt 260 250 CFC-11 CFC-11 3.1 ppb 3.1 5 ppb 240 200 160 120 ppt 80 CFC-113 CFC-113 CH3 CCl CH3CCl3 3 3.0 2.9 3.0 HCFC-22 2.9 HCFC-22 0 1990 2.8 2.8 1990 CCl4 CCl 4 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 40 HFC-134a HFC-134a ?? 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Refining future projections with observations 550 545 540 Max allowed, zero bank in 2002 (WMO, 2003) Observations (scaled) Best Estimate (zero bank; WMO, 2003) Mixing ratio (ppt) 535 530 525 520 515 CFC-12 2000 Zero emission 510 1995 2005 2010 Data: NOAA & AGAGE Refining future projections with observations 550 545 540 Max allowed, zero bank in 2002 (WMO, 2003) Observations (scaled) Best Estimate (zero bank; WMO, 2003) Revised Bank, 711 Gg in 2005 (WMO, 2007) Implications: Larger Bank? Unaccounted production? Slower recovery? Mixing ratio (ppt) 535 530 525 520 515 CFC-12 2000 Zero emission 510 1995 2005 2010 2010 Data: NOAA & AGAGE Interconnections Climate Strat. O3 AQ Climate and Stratospheric ozone Climate and air quality Stratospheric ozone and air quality 17 Climate and Stratospheric Ozone From: Thompson & Solomon Many connections between climate and stratospheric ozone issues: Role of stratospheric ozone depletion/changes on climate Globally Polar regions Influence of climate change on ozone layer recovery Tropospheric changes Changes in temperature Role of ODSs as climate gases Stratospheric changes as indicators of trop changes Interactions to think about - Mitigation options, e.g., biofuels and N2O 18 Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001 Weather from above. A weakening (red) or strengthening (blue) stratospheric vortex can alter circulation down to the surface. The diagrams show composites of the NAM index. (A) Composite of 18 week vortex events. The thin horizontal line indicates the approximate tropopause. ODS emissions: The baseline and worlds avoided (ODP-weighted) 3-7% 2-3% Montreal Protocol protection of ozone ESRL is a primary source of emissions data UNEP/WMO, 2006 G. Velders et al., PNAS, 2007 Global Warming Potential of ODS Emissions Montreal Protocol protection of climate G. Velders et al., PNAS, 2007 Antarctic Surface Climate: Why So Different from the Rest of the World? Summer skin temperature trends 1982-2004 from AVHRR Climate and Air Quality Spatial scales of climate change and air quality are converging. - Attributions of climate change on regional scales - Air quality changes extending to regional scales Essential to consider together for climate & AQ Changes in climate will influence air quality. - Different (evolving) backgrounds - Ways to cope with emissions Air quality improvement strategies may not always help climate change issues and vice-versa. Address these issues synergistically. Provide usable information (including new science efforts) to decision makers. 19 NOAA's Intensive Field Campaigns Arctic AGASP 1983, 86, 89, 92 ARCPAC, ICEALOT 2008 Focus on North America: Inflow from the North Pacific Outflow to the North Atlantic Outflow to Arctic Inflow from Africa Eastern North America: North Atlantic WATOX 1986 NARE 1991, 93, 96, 97 ICARTT 2004 Azores 1993 Western North America: North Pacific ITCT 2002 CalNex 2010 (planned) Africa GoMACCS 2006 SeaWiFS Biosphere Globes Lidar Observed Asian Aerosols, Barrow Observatory April 11, 2002 Aerosol Layers April 12, 2002 Clouds Asian gases and aerosols flow to the Arctic. The gases and aerosols may be transported in thin layers. Aircraft-Based Flask Sampling over North America Multiple-species approaches for quantifying fossil fuel CO2 Flask data from Texas tall tower: Summer 2006 Carbon Monoxide, ppb Carbon Monoxide, ppb R2=0.58 R2 =0.43 Benzene, ppt HFC-134a,ppt Fire or Urban Traffic/Urban Tracer used in auto air-conditioners CO is a tracer of combustion but not selective Can't easily distinguish between biomass-burning and urban pollution. Multiple species can help. Multiple-species approaches for quantifying fossil fuel CO2 Benzene+CFC134a Carbon Monoxide, ppb Carbon Monoxide, ppb OBS From HFC-134a R 2=0.77 From Benzene CO=32.03 +0.355*BENZENE + 1.342*HFC-134A, ppb 15 AUG 2006 15 OCT 2006 Together, Benzene and HFC-134a describe 80% of the observed variability in observed CO Use this info to help partition inferred CO2 flux among fires, urban pollution, and biological uptake/release Earth System Research Laboratory Mission: To observe and understand the Earth system and to develop products through a commitment to research that will advance NOAA's environmental information and service on global-to-local scales. ...
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This note was uploaded on 07/17/2008 for the course CHEM 641 taught by Professor Allen during the Winter '08 term at Ohio State.

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