AMM 230 Chapter 6

AMM 230 Chapter 6 - Chapter 6 Promotion and Forecasting...

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: Chapter 6 Promotion and Forecasting Chapter 6:Promotion & Forecasting Projecting trends What is forecasting? What is a trend? A general direction in which something is moving to. Fads vs. Classics Fad/Short Lived Trends Leggings/Bubble Skirts Classic The Little Black Dress Where do Trends Come From? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Society/celebrities/musicians Culture Designers Raw Material Vendors Publicity Consumers Influences....As if..... Grunge Look: Nirvana 8 Reasons Forecasts Fail 1. 1. 1. 1. Failure to examine assumptions Limited expertise (going on a hunch) Lack of imagination (too conservative) Neglect of constraints (ignoring limitations) 8 Reasons Forecasts Fail 1. 2. 3. 4. Excessive optimism (ignoring downside) Reliance on mechanical extrapolation (population) Premature closure Overspecification Elements for a Successful Forecast 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. A clear statement of purpose Clear assumptions A time horizon Attention to discontinuities Adequate accounting for social/technological forces Forecasting Personnel Forecasters Responsible for trend identification and image Futurists Makes longterm/range forecasts for many industries Fashion Forecasters Forecasting division within retail, manufacturing, or advertising Fashion Forecasters ie: Vouge, InStyle, Lucky For color, trend/lifestyle, fabrication, silhouettes, themes, etc. Cotton Incorporated, Tobe Report, D3 Doneger Design Direction, Promostyl, Design Direction, Trends West, WGSN, Fashion Snoops, FGI Trade publications include info: CAN, WWD www.fashionindex.com Remember: If the info is out on a mass market level, it is too late for you to use for forecasting. Design Options: Fall 2006: Metals Trends West Not Just About Fashion Things to consider: Cultural Trends, technological advancements, cross product categories, attitudes, lifestyles, etc. Examples: Ipods, laptops, economy Research! Research! Research! 1. 3 Types: Pure: Scientific, used to find new knowledge Applied: Solve an existing problem Action: Onetime study w/ a narrow application (fashion count) 1. 1. Market Research What is Market Research? Gathering information/data on consumers' preferences Includes: demographic, behavioristic, & psychographic Focus Groups Fashion Distribution Channel Raw Material Producers Manufacturers/ Designers Retailers Consumers Market Forecasts Primary Market: Color, Fibers, Fabrics Secondary Market: Designed goods, Int. trade shows, domestic trade shows Tertiary market: Retailers, buying offices ...
View Full Document

Ask a homework question - tutors are online