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Unformatted text preview: Chapter 6
Promotion and Forecasting Chapter 6:Promotion & Forecasting Projecting trends What is forecasting? What is a trend? A general direction in which something is moving to. Fads vs. Classics Fad/Short Lived Trends Leggings/Bubble Skirts Classic The Little Black Dress Where do Trends Come From?
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Society/celebrities/musicians Culture Designers Raw Material Vendors Publicity Consumers Influences....As if..... Grunge Look: Nirvana 8 Reasons Forecasts Fail
1. 1. 1. 1. Failure to examine assumptions Limited expertise (going on a hunch) Lack of imagination (too conservative) Neglect of constraints (ignoring limitations) 8 Reasons Forecasts Fail
1. 2. 3. 4. Excessive optimism (ignoring downside) Reliance on mechanical extrapolation (population) Premature closure Overspecification Elements for a Successful Forecast
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. A clear statement of purpose Clear assumptions A time horizon Attention to discontinuities Adequate accounting for social/technological forces Forecasting Personnel
Forecasters Responsible for trend identification and image Futurists Makes longterm/range forecasts for many industries Fashion Forecasters Forecasting division within retail, manufacturing, or advertising Fashion Forecasters ie: Vouge, InStyle, Lucky For color, trend/lifestyle, fabrication, silhouettes, themes, etc. Cotton Incorporated, Tobe Report, D3 Doneger Design Direction, Promostyl, Design Direction, Trends West, WGSN, Fashion Snoops, FGI Trade publications include info: CAN, WWD www.fashionindex.com Remember: If the info is out on a mass market level, it is too late for you to use for forecasting. Design Options: Fall 2006: Metals Trends West Not Just About Fashion
Things to consider: Cultural Trends, technological advancements, cross product categories, attitudes, lifestyles, etc. Examples: Ipods, laptops, economy Research! Research! Research! 1. 3 Types: Pure: Scientific, used to find new knowledge Applied: Solve an existing problem Action: Onetime study w/ a narrow application (fashion count) 1. 1. Market Research
What is Market Research? Gathering information/data on consumers' preferences Includes: demographic, behavioristic, & psychographic Focus Groups Fashion Distribution Channel
Raw Material Producers Manufacturers/ Designers Retailers Consumers Market Forecasts Primary Market: Color, Fibers, Fabrics Secondary Market: Designed goods, Int. trade shows, domestic trade shows Tertiary market: Retailers, buying offices ...
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- Fall '07