Forecasting

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Month Sales (1000)s naïve Ma(3) WMA(3) ES(.4) Error 1 70 70 0 2 90 70 70 20 3 50 90 70 78 -28 4 90 50 76.6666667 64 66.8 23.2 5 100 90 80 78 76.08 23.92 6 80 100 90 92 85.648 -5.648 7 120 80 100 87 83.3888 36.6112 8 125 120 108.333333 106 98.03328 26.96672 9 90 125 111.666667 119 108.819968 -18.819968 10 110 90 108.333333 103.5 101.291981 8.7080192 11 120 110 106.666667 105.5 104.775188 15.2248115 12 90 120 106.666667 114 110.865113 -20.8651131 13 90 106.666667 101 102.519068 -102.519068 Wgt. 3 period 0.1 alpha = Wgt. 2 period 0.3 0.4 Wgt. 1 period 0.6 1
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Chart Title Sales (1000)s ES(.4)
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Month Sales (1000)s Ma(3) 1 70 2 90 3 50 4 90 76.6666667 5 100 80 6 80 90 7 120 100 8 125 108.333333 9 90 111.666667 10 110 108.333333 11 120 106.666667 12 90 106.666667 13 106.666667 Total average
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Month Sales (1000)s WMA(3) 1 70 2 90 3 50 4 90 64 5 100 78 6 80 92 7 120 87 8 125 106 9 90 119 10 110 103.5 11 120 105.5 12 90 114 13 101 0.1 0.3 0.6 1
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Month Sales (1000)s ES(.4) Error Absolute error Sqr. Error 1 70 70 0 2 90 70 20 3 50 78 -28 4 90 66.8 23.2 23.2 538.24 5 100 76.08 23.92 23.92 572.1664 6 80 85.648 -5.648 5.648 31.899904
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