Financial Modelling (Ch. 2) 3-2-17

Financial Modelling (Ch. 2) 3-2-17 - Per share basis The...

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Per share basis The Gordon model cost of equity Kellog dividends, May 1996 - May 2006 Dividend growth rate, quarterly 60 3 Last 2 year 1.36% Anticipated dividend growth rate 12% 17.60% Dividend growth rate, annualized Last 2 years 5.53% Date Dividends 29-May-96 0.195 28-Aug-96 0.21 26-Nov-96 0.21 27-May-04 0.253 27-Aug-04 0.253 23-Nov-04 0.253 25-Feb-05 0.253 27-May-05 0.253 30-Aug-05 0.278 29-Nov-05 0.278 27-Feb-06 0.278 30-May-06 0.278 Current share price, P 0 Current divident, D 0 Gordom model cost of equity, r E
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Total cash flow basis J&J cash flow to equity, 1995-2005 Kellog's price on May 30, 2006 48.28 Year ending Dividends Dividend growth rate 1.36% 31-Dec-95 827,000,000.00 Annualized dividend 1.265 31-Dec-96 974,000,000.00 31-Dec-97 1,137,000,000.00 Gordon model for COE 4.016% 31-Dec-98 1,305,000,000.00 31-Dec-99 1,479,000,000.00 31-Dec-00 1,724,000,000.00 31-Dec-01 2,047,000,000.00 31-Dec-02 2,381,000,000.00 31-Dec-03 2,746,000,000.00 31-Dec-04 3,251,000,000.00 31-Dec-05 3,793,000,000.00 End 2005 equity data Stock price 61.07 Number of shares 3,119,842,000.00 Equity value 190,528,750,940.00 Equity cash flow, end 2 4,814,000,000.00 Future growth rate Based on 10 year growth16.59% Based on 5 year growth 15.82% Based on 10 year growth19.54% Based on 5 year growth 18.75% Computing Kellog's r E with the Gordom model Gordon CoE, r E
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Repurcahse of commo Stock issues Cash flow to equity Year on year growth 322,000,000.00 (112,000,000.00) 1,037,000,000.00 412,000,000.00 (149,000,000.00) 1,237,000,000.00 19.29% 628,000,000.00 (225,000,000.00) 1,540,000,000.00 24.49% 930,000,000.00 (269,000,000.00) 1,966,000,000.00 27.66% 840,000,000.00 (221,000,000.00) 2,098,000,000.00 6.71% 973,000,000.00 (387,000,000.00) 2,310,000,000.00 10.10% 2,570,000,000.00 (514,000,000.00) 4,103,000,000.00 77.62% 6,538,000,000.00 (390,000,000.00) 8,529,000,000.00 107.87% 1,183,000,000.00 (311,000,000.00) 3,618,000,000.00 -57.58% 1,384,000,000.00 (642,000,000.00) 3,993,000,000.00 10.36% 1,717,000,000.00 (696,000,000.00) 4,814,000,000.00 20.56%
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15-Jun-94 28-Oct-95 11-Mar-97 24-Jul-98 6-Dec-99 19-Apr-01 1-Sep-02 (2,000,000,000.00) - 2,000,000,000.00 4,000,000,000.00 6,000,000,000.00 8,000,000,000.00 10,000,000,000.00 JNJ, Cashflow to equity, 1995 - 2005 Dividends Repurcahse of common stock Stock issues Cash flow to equity Year on year growth Time Amount
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JNJ's stock price, P0, 31 Dec 2005 61.07 Current dividend Quarterly 0.33 1.32 Dividend growth rate, g Quarterly Annualized Growth since 17-NOV-00 3.69% 15.58% Growth since 14-NOV-03 4.06% 17.26% Growth since 17-NOV-00 18.08% Growth since 14-NOV-03 19.79% Date Dividend per share 17-Nov-00 0.16 15-Feb-01 0.16 18-May-01 0.18 17-Aug-01 0.18 16-Nov-01 0.18 14-Feb-02 0.18 17-May-02 0.205 16-Aug-02 0.205 15-Nov-02 0.205 13-Feb-03 0.205 16-May-03 0.24 15-Aug-03 0.24 14-Nov-03 0.24 12-Feb-04 0.24 14-May-04 0.285 13-Aug-04 0.285 12-Nov-04 0.285 11-Feb-05 0.285 13-May-05 0.33 19-Aug-05 0.33 18-Nov-05 0.33 Compugting JNJ's r E based on dividends per share Annualized dividend, Div 0 Gordon model of cost of equity r E 14-Jan-04 28-May-05 10-Oct-06 s
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d
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Computing Beta for Intel Monthly returns for Intel and SP500, 2001-2006 Alpha -0.0160342 Beta 1.9658 R-squared 0.5382771 t for alpha #NAME?
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