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Unformatted text preview: woman with this cancer, there are about 16% false negative; that is P(test negative  cancer)=0.16 For woman without this cancer, there are about 19% false postive; that is P(test positive  no cancer)=0.16 In the US, there are about 8 woman in 100,000 who have this cancer; that is P(cancer)=0.00008 What is the posterior probability of P(cancer  test positive) ? Ping Ma Lecture 7 Fall 2005 4 Example: An insurance company knows that the following probabilities relating to automobile accidents: Age of driver Prob. of accident fraction of company’s insured driver 1625 0.05 0.10 2650 0.02 0.55 5165 0.03 0.20 6690 0.04 0.15 A random selected driver from the company’s insured drivers has accident. What is the conditional probability that the driver is in 1625 age group? Ping Ma Lecture 7 Fall 2005 5 ...
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 Fall '05
 TBA
 Statistics, Conditional Probability, Probability, Thomas bayes, Ma Lecture

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