Statistics 400
Lecture 5
Probability
Labor Day Break is coming, let’s play
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three
doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door,
say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens
another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you
want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Solution:
There are three possible scenarios, each with equal probability (1/3):
•
The player picks goat number 1. The game host picks the other goat.
Switching will win the car.
•
The player picks goat number 2. The game host picks the other goat.
Switching will win the car.
•
The player picks the car. The game host picks either of the two goats.
Switching will lose
Ping Ma
Lecture 5
Fall 2005
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View Full DocumentConditional Probability:
The goal is to find the probability of a certain event given that a specific
condition is satisfied.
Assume P (A) > 0
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 Fall '05
 TBA
 Statistics, Conditional Probability, Probability, Academic degree, Master's degree, monty hall problem, Ma Lecture

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