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# stat400lec5 - Statistics 400 Lecture 5 Probability Labor...

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Statistics 400 Lecture 5 Probability Labor Day Break is coming, let’s play http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Solution: There are three possible scenarios, each with equal probability (1/3): The player picks goat number 1. The game host picks the other goat. Switching will win the car. The player picks goat number 2. The game host picks the other goat. Switching will win the car. The player picks the car. The game host picks either of the two goats. Switching will lose Ping Ma Lecture 5 Fall 2005 - 1 -

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Conditional Probability: The goal is to find the probability of a certain event given that a specific condition is satisfied.
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