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Unformatted text preview: Econ 171-EEP 151 Alain de Janvry Fall 2007 Lourdes Rodriguez & Melissa Hidrobo Exercise #3 Population, growth, and the environment Due October 25, 2007 I. Analysis of the population structure The U.S. Census Bureau (International Data Base) gives information on the population size and the population by age groups for all countries in the world for 2007, 2025, and 2050 at the following website: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/idbsprd.html In Excel file Homework3_07data.xls, we extracted data for you on four countries with sharply contrasted population dynamics: Niger, India, Mexico, and Japan. They illustrate how population growth and the pyramid of ages change as GDP per capita rises and economies transform. Worksheet Tot pop gives the total population from 1950 to 2050 Worksheet Pyramids gives the population in each age group for 2007, 2025, and 2050. 1. Plot the total population of each country over the 1950-2050 period (each on a small separate graph). What do you see? Can population stabilize and even decline? (2 points) Niger, Evolution of the total population 1950-2050 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time Total population in millions India, Evolution of the total population 1950-2050 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time Total population in millions Mexico, Evolution of the total population 1950-2050 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time Total population in millions Japan, Evolution of the total population 1950-2050 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time Total population in millions Populations Nige has increased and will continue to increase drastically. However, the population for Mexico seems to be on a path to stabilizing in the future and the population for Japan will actually decrease in the future. Its a little harder to say for India, but it seems like its population could also be stabilizing. 2. Calculate the average annual population growth rate for Niger over the period (You can easily do this by placing an exponential trend line in your Niger Excel graph and asking to see the formula (Excel command: Options, display equation on chart. The average annual growth rate is the exponential coefficient.) (1 point)equation on chart....
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- Fall '07
- DE JANVRY