ARB8 - Statewide Effects of Transportation Policy By Peter...

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Statewide Effects of Transportation Policy By Peter Berck University of California, Berkeley August 2002
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The Task: Assembly Bill 2076 Evaluate the likely economy wide effects of petroleum dependence reducing strategies in the context of projections for the California economy for 2000, 2020 and 2050. Method: EDRAM, a computable general equilibrium model for the California economy.
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Models of the entire California Economy. DRAM is used to evaluate proposal with large fiscal impact. EDRAM is a derivative model with pollution coefficients and more detail about industrial sectors.
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History of DRAM In August, 1994 SB 1837 was enacted requiring the Department of Finance to perform dynamic revenue analysis for proposed legislation having a revenue impact of ten million dollars or more. Open source model. Team from DOF (headed by B. Smith) and UCB. In continuous use.
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Documentation The model is in the public domain. Maintained by CA DOF. Full DRAM model and documentation: http://134.186.99.249/html/fs_data/dyna-rev/dynrev.htm. ARB version differs in having engine and consumer chemicals sectors. ARB version includes pollution emissions data. ARB version documents: http://are.berkeley.edu/~phess
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Uncertainty in Model 1998 base from 1992 IO table Migration data Trade elasticities Petroleum elasticity of subs between capital and labor
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Sources The sources are fully documented. Input Output table is the primary source for industry intermediate requirements. Demand was estimated from Consumer Expenditure Survey for the West. Demand elasticity for fuel = -.2 Most parameters (e.g., elasticity of substitution) taken from literature.
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General Equilibrium The model solves for the prices of goods and services and factors of production that make quantity demanded and supplied equal. Both physical goods and money are conserved.
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Structure of E-DRAM 102 distinct sectors: 29 industrial sectors, 9 consumer sectors, two factor sectors (labor and capital), seven household sectors, one investment sector, 45 government sectors, and one sector that represents the rest of the world.
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Where is Petroleum? Refining Crude Production Import and Export Crude Refined Intermediate good purchased by Transportation Other sectors Purchased by consumers Significant direct tax revenue Engines are needed to use petroleum
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Households Firms Services Factors Demand Supply Supply Demand Expenditure Income Rents Revenue Goods and Services 29 different goods and services and 29 types of firms Two Factors: Capital and Labor
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Trade and Intermediates Firms Services Factors Demand Capital Inflow Inter- mediates Foreign House- Holds Foreign Firms Supply (Imports) Capital Inflow Demand (Exports) Capital Outflow Capital Inflow Supply (Imports) Capital Outflow Capital Inflow Demand (Exports) Supply House- Holds
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ARB8 - Statewide Effects of Transportation Policy By Peter...

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